Teradyne reported Q2 2026 results on July 28 after market close, delivering a significant beat: revenue of $1.33B versus consensus $1.22B (up 104% YoY) and non-GAAP of $2.47 versus $2.04 (beat by 20.3%). Q3 revenue guidance of $1.25B midpoint came in 21% above analyst expectations, reinforcing the AI-driven demand cycle. The stock surged 12.8% in after-hours trading to $363.91. The market regime remains neutral with at 18.2 and the 10Y yield at 4.6%, still a headwind for high-multiple growth but the fundamental momentum is powerful. Fundamentals are exceptional: 5/5 earnings beats, accelerating growth, upward estimate revisions across all timeframes, and a fortress balance sheet with net cash of $163M. Technically, the stock was in a downtrend before earnings (below 20-day and 50-day EMAs, 42.9, slightly negative), but the post-earnings gap has recaptured the 20-day and is approaching the 50-day , suggesting a potential trend reversal. News flow is now strongly positive, with multiple analysts raising price targets into the report and the beat/raise likely to trigger further upgrades. The highest-impact item was the earnings and guidance beat, which has reset expectations upward. Key risks remain: elevated valuation (forward ~35x post-price), tariff uncertainties, and potential multiple compression from rising rates. Overall, the near-term outlook improves following the catalyst, and the long-term AI thesis is reinforced. Positioning: Increase to full size on strength, with a stop below recent lows. Target entry zone $350-365, exit zone $440-500.
投资判断
实时价格
$320.65
推荐分数
75%
75%
置信度
75%
75%
各期限展望
1个月
买入
短线
6个月
强力买入
中期
1年
强力买入
长期
核心催化
The Q2 earnings beat and Q3 guidance raise on July 28 is the most significant catalyst. Revenue growth of 104% YoY and forward guidance 21% above consensus reinforce the AI test infrastructure thesis. The stock's 12.8% after-hours move reflects the magnitude of the surprise and sets a positive tone for near-term trading.
稳定性分类High-Beta Growth组合角色Core Growth回撤风险High风险画像AggressiveAI Test InfrastructureEarnings BeatGuidance RaiseTechnical ReboundHigh Beta
决策工作台
价格地图
60日设置
价格轨道
$320.65
止损
当前
$302
$374
$446
$518
止损位
$320.00
买入
$350.00 - $365.00
止盈
$440.00 - $500.00
风险/回报
2.1x
有吸引力
到止损下行
-0.2%
到止盈上行
+55.9%
仓位提示
After a strong earnings beat and guidance raise, increasing allocation to full size is warranted. at 18.2 allows normal sizing. However, given the stock's high beta and the recent correction, consider a phased entry: half at current levels, half on pullbacks to $350-360.
投资逻辑快照
什么情况涨
The Q2 beat and Q3 guidance raise confirm that AI-driven demand is accelerating, not peaking. Revenue growth of 104% YoY with 21% upside guidance indicates strong momentum. Analyst targets average $429.88, with further upward revisions likely. The stock's correction from $487 to $297 was overdone, and the gap up to $364 is just the beginning of a recovery. The fortress balance sheet and dominant market position provide downside support. Continued AI investment cycles could drive earnings well above current estimates.
什么情况跌
Despite the beat, the stock still trades at a forward of ~35x, leaving little room for error. The guidance beat was partially anticipated, and the stock's after-hours move of 12.8% may have already priced it in. Rising rates (10Y at 4.6%) could compress multiples. Tariffs and geopolitical tensions remain overhangs. The technical breakdown before earnings was severe, and a one-day gap does not guarantee trend reversal. Short interest of 5.4% could lead to a squeeze, but also reflects skepticism. The energy sector is not relevant; the bear case rests on valuation and macro risks.
A daily close below $320 (breakdown below pre-earnings close) would suggest the gap was a false breakout and the downtrend resumes. Also, any negative pre-announcement or tariff escalation could undermine the thesis.
Valuation risk: forward of ~35x leaves limited upside if multiple compression occurs.
Tariff risk: new US tariffs on semiconductor supply chain (EU, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) could disrupt operations and increase costs.
Rising interest rates: 10Y yield at 4.6% could compress growth stock multiples.
Competitive risk: Advantest and FormFactor gaining share in advanced test could erode Teradyne's market position.
Event risk: earnings beat already catalysts, but any future guidance disappointment could reset expectations.
接下来关注
The Q2 earnings beat and Q3 guidance raise on July 28 is the most significant catalyst. Revenue growth of 104% YoY and forward guidance 21% above consensus reinforce the AI test infrastructure thesis. The stock's 12.8% after-hours move reflects the magnitude of the surprise and sets a positive tone for near-term trading.
信号仪表盘
决策输入
6 个信号
基本面
34.1%
距分析师均值目标空间
At $363.91, Teradyne trades at a forward of ~35x based on updated FY26 consensus of $7.31 (pre-earnings) and ~30x FY27 of $10.31. Given the beat and raise, estimates will likely increase further, reducing multiples. The ratio is ~1.3x, attractive relative to growth. of ~14x is elevated but justified by 104% revenue growth. of ~45x is high but supported by dominant AI test market position. The mean analyst target of $429.88 implies 18% upside, with several above $500. Valuation is palatable given the growth trajectory.
技术面
Bullish
趋势质量
Long-term uptrend intact (price above 200-day at $283), but medium-term trend turned bearish before earnings. Post-earnings gap has recaptured the 20-day ($360.71) and is testing the 50-day ($368.57). If the gap holds, it could trigger a golden cross (50-day crossing above 200-day is already in place). The pattern resembles a V-bottom reversal. Key support at $320 (pre-gap close) and $296 (recent low). Resistance at $370 (50-day ) and $429 (mean analyst target).
财报
待确认
Accelerating
Q2 2026 delivered a 20.3% beat ($2.47 vs $2.04) on record AI-driven test demand, with revenue up 104% YoY to $1.33B. Q3 guidance of $1.25B revenue midpoint beat consensus by 21%. The stock surged 12.8% after-hours.
新闻
Bullish
新闻基调
The Q2 earnings beat and Q3 guidance raise on July 28 is the most significant catalyst. Revenue growth of 104% YoY and forward guidance 21% above consensus reinforce the AI test infrastructure thesis. The stock's 12.8% after-hours move reflects the magnitude of the surprise and sets a positive tone for near-term trading.
宏观
Neutral
4.60% 10Y / 18.2 VIX
at 18.2 indicates cautious risk appetite, while 10Y yield at 4.6% continues to pressure high-growth stocks. However, Teradyne's exceptional earnings momentum and AI demand provide a fundamental buffer. The regime favors selective growth names with strong execution and upward revisions.
稳定性
High-Beta Growth
Core Growth
Teradyne remains a high-beta growth name leveraged to secular AI test infrastructure demand, with exceptional business quality (58.7% gross margins, 28.8% , fortress balance sheet). The Q2 earnings beat and strong Q3 guidance reinforce the fundamental thesis. Despite the recent sharp correction, the stock is now recovering. The long-term AI demand story remains intact, justifying a Core Growth role in portfolios tolerant of 20-30% drawdowns. Near-term volatility remains elevated, but the risk/reward improves post-earnings.
分析师目标区间
均值目标
$429.88
高低目标
$270 / $550
分析师中值目标
$446.00
共识区间
$270 - $550
— 位分析师
Mean
$270$430$550
市场共识
The analyst consensus is bullish with 12 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell. The mean target of $429.88 implies 18% upside, but the wide spread ($270-$550) reflects pre-earnings uncertainty. After the beat, we expect upward target revisions and a narrowing of the range. The preponderance of bullish ratings is likely to strengthen.
筹码脉冲
内部人信号
Neutral
净偏向
No recent activity
内部人持股
0.3%
机构持股
98.2%
解读
Insider activity provides no clear directional signal. The lack of selling during the correction is mildly reassuring, but the small ownership limits alignment.
重要活动
Only three transactions in the last 20 filings: small gifts/donations from directors. No open-market buying or selling by executives. Insider ownership is negligible at 0.26%.
市场背景
行业
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Neutral
情绪
-8
跟踪股票
4
分组
industry
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials 行业 当前情绪为 Neutral，板块平均评分约 59 分，资金偏好与评分正在走弱，且leadership is concentrated in ASML, AMAT, KLAC。
The AI infrastructure buildout continues to drive demand for advanced semiconductor test equipment. Teradyne's Q2 results confirm that AI-related revenue now dominates, and the partnership with Tokyo Electron expands the addressable market. The earnings beat and guidance raise validate the secular growth story. Despite near-term volatility and tariff concerns, the theme remains strong as hyperscalers invest in AI chips. The recent pullback was a buying opportunity, and the post-earnings rally confirms institutional re-engagement.
TSMC's elevated capex and IBM's AI hardware commentary, combined with Teradyne's beat/raise, underscore the massive investment cycle in AI test infrastructure.
Hyperscaler AI capex continues to grow, boosting demand for chip test equipment.
Chiplet architecture adoption requires new test methodologies, benefiting Teradyne.
CHIPS Act reshoring drives domestic demand for test equipment.
Recent analyst price target increases and positive earnings surprise reinforce the narrative.
关键指标
23 项指标
市值
$50.20B
市盈率 (TTM)
59.5
远期市盈率
31.1
营收增速
87.0%
净资产收益率
28.7%
Beta 系数
1.74
完整指标集
另外 17 项指标
估值结构
估值倍数与现金流框架。
市销率
13.3
市净率
16.0
企业价值 / EBITDA
45.0
质量与资产负债表
利润率、杠杆与流动性。
毛利率
58.7%
营业利润率
37.6%
资产负债率
2.6
流动比率
2.15x
速动比率
1.34x
仓位与价格区间
空头仓位与52周区间位置。
流通盘空头占比
5.4%
空头回补天数
1.37x
52周最高
$487.91
52周最低
$89.18
距52周高点
-34.3%
距52周低点
259.5%
公司分类
板块与行业背景。
板块
Technology
行业
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
其他信号
自由现金流
$298311264.00
详细分析
估值
At $363.91, Teradyne trades at a forward of ~35x based on updated FY26 consensus of $7.31 (pre-earnings) and ~30x FY27 of $10.31. Given the beat and raise, estimates will likely increase further, reducing multiples. The ratio is ~1.3x, attractive relative to growth. of ~14x is elevated but justified by 104% revenue growth. of ~45x is high but supported by dominant AI test market position. The mean analyst target of $429.88 implies 18% upside, with several above $500. Valuation is palatable given the growth trajectory.
资产负债表
Fortress balance sheet: debt-to-equity of 2.6%, current ratio of 2.15, quick ratio of 1.34, and net cash of $163M. Free cash flow of $298M provides ample coverage. No refinancing risk.
增长
Exceptional and accelerating: Q2 revenue grew 104% YoY to $1.33B, with AI-related revenue likely exceeding 70%. Q3 guidance implies ~63% YoY growth. The Tokyo Electron partnership opens a $300-700M TAM. growth has been over 300% YoY. The trajectory remains robust with the AI infrastructure buildout in early innings.
生意质量
High-tier: gross margin 58.7%, operating margin 37.6%, margin 30.7%, 28.8%, 15.8%. These metrics reflect strong pricing power, operational efficiency, and wide competitive moat in semiconductor test. High switching costs ensure customer stickiness.
资本配置
Management prioritizes R&D and strategic partnerships. Active buybacks ($626M authorized) support shareholder returns. Minimal dividend yields 0.16%. With net cash and strong FCF, capital allocation is balanced between growth investments and returning capital.
预期修正
Extremely bullish: upward revisions across all periods in the last 7 and 30 days before earnings, with zero downgrades. The beat/raise will likely trigger further upward revisions. FY26 estimates have risen from $6.50 (90 days ago) to $7.31, and will likely move higher. Analyst actions include multiple price target increases in recent weeks.