SNOW closed at $328.99 on Sept 11, down marginally from $329.72, continuing an orderly low-volume digestion of the Sept 2 Q2 FY27 blowout: of $0.62 beat consensus by 38.7% (+77% YoY), revenue grew 35.1% to $1.55B, product revenue accelerated +37% to $1.49B (third consecutive acceleration), FY27 product guidance was raised to $6.07B (36% growth from 31%), Q3 was guided to 37-38% YoY growth versus ~$1.5B consensus, and the non-GAAP operating margin outlook rose to 14.5% with management attributing roughly half the acceleration to AI products. Since gapping to a $384.56 52-week high on Sept 3, the stock has retraced 14.4% on declining volume (Sept 11 volume of 4.48M was just 0.84x the 20-day average) — profit-taking rather than institutional distribution panic — but has bled from 102.6M on Sept 3 to 76.65M and the histogram worsened for a fourth straight session to -1.74, so short-term momentum remains unconvincing. The macro backdrop improved meaningfully on Sept 11: fell 3.8% to 15.84 and the S&P rallied +0.86%, Nasdaq +0.96% — a calmer tape for a beta-1.328 name — though the 10-year at 4.97% keeps multiple-compression pressure on a 109.5x forward , 21.4x sales, -8.28 stock. The fundamental news flow stays strongly bullish (StockStory highlighting SNOW's 22% FCF margin, Zacks framing it as the primary AI data-cloud expression via ETFs like DUNK at 10.66% weight), consensus for FY27 rose 14% in 30 days and FY28 by 11.4% with three upward and zero downward revisions, and the mean target of $418.29 (median $440) sits 27% above the price. With the next earnings report 81 days away (Dec 2), there is no imminent binary event; the setup is a fundamentals-confirmed growth story in a consolidation phase whose key test is whether the $305-$310 gap origin and ($302.17) hold while the 10-year approaches 5%.
Decision
Live price
$328.99
Recommendation score
72%
72%
Confidence
70%
70%
Outlook by horizon
1M
HOLD
Near
6M
BUY
Mid
1Y
BUY
Long
Primary catalyst
The Sept 2 Q2 FY27 blowout and its aftermath remain the decisive market-moving event: it triggered a gap to a $384.56 52-week high, a 14% thirty-day jump in FY27 consensus, and five target raises totaling 40-150 points each — and the current 14% low-volume retracement is the market's attempt to digest that repricing. The next catalyst window is the Dec 2 Q3 print (81 days away), with the interim question being whether the $305-$310 gap support holds and whether the 10-year at 4.97% forces broader multiple compression.
Stability ClassHigh-Beta GrowthPortfolio RoleCore GrowthDrawdown RiskHighRisk ProfileAggressiveEnterprise AI Data InfrastructurePost-Earnings BlowoutAI Agents (Cortex Code/CoCo)Extreme ValuationRising Rate RiskLow-Volume Digestion
Decision Workspace
Price Map
60-day setup
Price rail
$328.99
Stop
Now
$286
$342
$398
$454
Stop loss
$300.00
Entry
$305.00 - $329.00
Exit
$390.00 - $440.00
Risk / reward
5.6x
Favorable
Downside to stop
-8.8%
Upside to exit
+33.7%
Position sizing
The binary event has passed and the thesis is confirmed, but 70.28% realized volatility, a ~4.9% , a 10-year at 4.97%, and four straight days of -histogram deterioration argue for 50-75% of normal growth-sleeve size. Prefer staged entries: partial on weakness into the $305-$329 consolidation zone, add on a volume-confirmed close above $341.45, and avoid chasing above $345 without a fresh catalyst. Do not use tight mechanical stops — a ~5% daily will trigger them on noise.
Thesis Snapshot
Why It Works
SNOW just delivered the strongest quarter of its life as a public company — a 38.7% beat, 35.1% revenue growth, a third consecutive quarter of product-revenue acceleration to +37%, a full-year guide raised from 31% to 36% growth, and a simultaneous operating-margin raise to 14.5% — proving the AI monetization story is real, not narrative: management attributed roughly half the acceleration to AI products, CoCo hit 9,100 accounts (+2,000 sequential), and use cases grew 89% YoY. The sell-side responded with FY27 upgrades of +14.0% over 30 days and five target raises to $350-$450, leaving the $418.29 mean target 27% above the price, and Stifel now models sustained 30%+ product growth — a structural re-rating of the growth algorithm. The prior analysis' entry zone at $302-$315 was never filled because the stock gapped over it, but the current 14.4% retracement from $384.56 on declining volume (0.84x the 20-day average) has delivered a second-chance entry near $329 with the gap origin at $305.84 as a defined, thesis-supporting floor, an improving tape ( down to 15.84, Nasdaq +0.96% on Sept 11), and an 81-day event-free runway. For a growth investor, this is a rare combination: accelerating fundamentals, expanding margins, confirmed analyst re-rating, and a pullback into the breakout zone.
What Breaks It
The uncomfortable truth is that the blowout is now fully in the price and momentum is still leaking: the stock retraced 14.4% from $384.56 to $328.99, bled from 102.6M to 76.65M, the histogram worsened a fourth straight day to -1.74, and price is pinned at the — while the 10-year climbed to 4.97%, a rate environment that historically compresses 109.5x forward multiples hard even as eases. At 21.4x sales versus ~4.1x for the industry, an 8.28 , net debt of $419M, and GAAP operating margin of -17.0%, the stock prices in years of flawless 35%+ growth; the mean target's implied 27% upside is built on a median of $440 from analysts who just chased the print upward (Goldman from $300 to $436 in one action — a 45% target hike in a day is momentum, not analysis). If Q3 consumption data disappoints, if AI-product gross-margin drag deepens beyond the 74% product margin guided, or if the market decides 5% yields are the new regime, this name can de-rate 25-30% without any company-specific bad news. The distribution says some large holders used the gap to sell — exactly the behavior that preceded the Aug 26 pre-earnings slide from $334.70 to $305.84. Buying here is buying a confirmed thesis at a worse price than the gap allowed, with short interest at 5.25% of float providing a modest but real bearish camp.
A daily close below $300 — breaking both the ($302.17) and fully filling the post-earnings gap — invalidates the technical setup; fundamentally, any Q3 consumption/NRR evidence that the 37-38% guided product growth is not materializing, or a FY27 guide walk-back at the Dec 2 print, would break the re-acceleration thesis regardless of chart levels.
Multiple compression risk: at 109.5x forward , 21.4x sales, and an 8.28 with a Value Score of F, an in-line quarter or a broad rates shock could produce a 20-30% drawdown; the 10-year at 4.97% keeps the de-rating impulse live even with easing to 15.84.
Post-gap distribution: fell from 102.6M to 76.65M since Sept 3 and the histogram worsened to -1.74 over four sessions — if the $305.84 gap origin breaks, the technical structure unwinds to the pre-earnings base near $300-$307, a ~9% further decline.
Valuation-fragile financing posture: the company swung to $419M net debt with a 0.94 current ratio while funding a $6B AWS commitment and two acquisitions; a growth stall would force spending cuts or dilutive financing, and GAAP operating margin of -17.0% means the P&L is not yet self-sustaining on a GAAP basis.
Analyst chase risk: targets were raised 40-80 points each within days of the print (Goldman $300→$436, Argus $300→$450, JPM $285→$426), meaning consensus upside is now dependent on continued momentum; near-quarter estimate rows ticked down within the last 7 days (0q: 1 down; +1q: 1 down against 2 up in 30 days), a small but real crack to monitor against the Zacks-reported 8/12 and 9/15 raises.
Watch Next
Next earnings: Dec 2, 2026
The Sept 2 Q2 FY27 blowout and its aftermath remain the decisive market-moving event: it triggered a gap to a $384.56 52-week high, a 14% thirty-day jump in FY27 consensus, and five target raises totaling 40-150 points each — and the current 14% low-volume retracement is the market's attempt to digest that repricing. The next catalyst window is the Dec 2 Q3 print (81 days away), with the interim question being whether the $305-$310 gap support holds and whether the 10-year at 4.97% forces broader multiple compression.
Signal Dashboard
Decision inputs
6 signals
Fundamental
27.1%
Upside to analyst mean target
At $328.99, SNOW trades at 109.5x forward (Zacks cites 154.2x on its consensus basis), 21.4x trailing sales versus ~4.1x for the Internet Software industry, 53.9x book, and an 8.28 ; is -112.5x because remains negative, and the 1.5% FCF yield confirms the stock is priced for flawless multi-year execution. What sustains the multiple is the denominator's trajectory: FY27 product revenue guidance of $6.07B (36% growth), a Q3 guide of 37-38% YoY, 14.5% non-GAAP operating margin, 74% product gross margin, and a reiterated 23% adjusted FCF margin mean the premium is paid against an accelerating, margin-expanding base rather than a decelerating one. Analyst targets were lifted en masse post-print — Goldman to $436 from $300, JPM to $426 from $285, Argus to $450 from $300, Jefferies to $430 from $385, Macquarie to $350 from $200 — leaving the mean target of $418.29 (+27.2%) and median $440 (+33.7%) well above the price, with the $110-$525 spread reflecting extreme disagreement about the terminal multiple. The valuation is only defensible if ~35%+ product revenue growth and AI-workload monetization persist; any re-deceleration triggers compression with no cushion.
Technical
Neutral
Trend quality
The long-term uptrend is powerful and intact: at $328.99, price sits +8.9% above ($302.17) and +33.5% above ($246.21), with the golden cross intact and every moving average rising. The Sept 3 session gapped from $305.84 to open at $377.24 and printed a 52-week high of $384.56, confirming the pre-earnings breakout thesis decisively. Since then the stock has retraced 14.4% in an orderly profit-taking wave: Sept 11 closed essentially at the ($327.61) and the past four sessions have oscillated between $323.42 and $341.45 — a tightening coil right at the 20-day line. The gap zone between the Sept 2 close ($305.84) and the Sept 3 open ($377.24) remains partially unfilled — $305-$310 is the critical support shelf, reinforced by the rising at $302.17; overhead, the $341-$345 supply zone (Sept 8/10 highs at $341.14/$341.45) and the $384.56 high are the levels to reclaim.
Earnings
81d
Accelerating
Q2 FY27 (reported Sept 2): non-GAAP of $0.62 beat the $0.447 consensus by 38.7% (+77% YoY), revenue of $1.55B grew 35.1% and beat by 4.91%, product revenue accelerated +37% to $1.49B with CoCo adding 2,000+ accounts sequentially; the stock gapped to a $384.56 52-week high the next session before profit-taking.
News
Bullish
Headline tone
The Sept 2 Q2 FY27 blowout and its aftermath remain the decisive market-moving event: it triggered a gap to a $384.56 52-week high, a 14% thirty-day jump in FY27 consensus, and five target raises totaling 40-150 points each — and the current 14% low-volume retracement is the market's attempt to digest that repricing. The next catalyst window is the Dec 2 Q3 print (81 days away), with the interim question being whether the $305-$310 gap support holds and whether the 10-year at 4.97% forces broader multiple compression.
Macro
Neutral
4.97% 10Y / 15.8 VIX
at 15.84 (down 3.8% on Sept 11 after jumping to 17.84 the prior session) and a 10-year yield at 4.97% define a stabilizing-but-rate-sensitive regime in which the equity tape has reopened for beta (S&P +0.86%, Nasdaq +0.96%), yet 109.5x forward growth names like SNOW remain exposed to multiple compression if yields push toward 5%.
Stability
High-Beta Growth
Core Growth
Snowflake is a high-beta growth asset (beta 1.328, 20-day realized volatility 70.28%, ~4.9% of price) leveraged to enterprise AI data infrastructure, and the Sept 2 Q2 FY27 blowout continues to de-risk the business thesis: product revenue accelerated for a third consecutive quarter (+37% to $1.49B), FY27 guidance was raised to $6.07B (36% growth from 31%), non-GAAP operating margin guidance rose to 14.5%, and management attributes roughly half the growth acceleration to AI products. That earns High thesis durability, but the trading profile remains violent: the stock gapped from $305.84 to a $384.56 high and has retraced 14.4% to $328.99, and a 109.5x forward with $419M net debt leaves zero valuation cushion with the 10-year yield at 4.97%. Expect 20-30% drawdowns in any risk-off shock. This belongs in the growth sleeve of an aggressive portfolio with disciplined sizing, not as a defensive anchor.
Analyst Spread
Mean Target
$418.29
High / Low
$110 / $525
Median Target
$440.00
Consensus range
$110 - $525
— analysts
Mean
$110$418$525
Consensus
The analyst consensus is heavily bullish (9 Strong Buy, 35 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell) and re-rated sharply after the print: the mean target of $418.29 is now 27.2% above the $328.99 price (Zacks separately cites a $405.58 average from 43 analysts, ~21% upside from Sept 8), and the median of $440 implies 33.7% upside. The $110-$525 range signals exceptional disagreement on the terminal multiple; fresh post-print raises (Goldman $436, Argus $450, JPM $426, Jefferies $430) anchor the upper band while Macquarie's $350 Neutral shows the cautious camp sits barely above the current price. After a 20%+ post-earnings surge followed by a 14% retracement, chasing here is riskier than buying weakness toward gap support or a confirmed reclaim of $341+.
Positioning Pulse
Insider Signal
Neutral
Net Bias
Sell-heavy
Insider Own.
2.9%
Institutional Own.
81.0%
Interpretation
Pre-scheduled, small, and dated dispositions with no new filings since the blowout print provide no incremental signal in either direction; founder diversification alone does not warrant a bearish read, though the absence of open-market insider buying after a ~53% YTD run removes one potential source of confirmation.
Notable activity
The only recent filings are dated roughly five months ago: Officer/Director Benoit Dageville disposed of 50,000 shares (ownership type 'I', value not disclosed) plus 869 shares (~$200K, D-type), and Officer Christian Kleinerman disposed of 2,611 shares (~$602K, D-type). Total disclosed value is under $1M — immaterial against the $116B market cap — and no open-market purchases or post-earnings sales appear in the data.
Market Context
Industry
Software - Application
Mixed-Bullish
Sentiment
21
Tracked names
14
Grouping
industry
Software - Application industry is currently Mixed-Bullish with an average recommendation score near 55. capital and conviction are improving across the group, and leadership is concentrated in SAP, CRM, UBER.
Rotation Drivers
Average recommendation deltas are trending higher across Software - Application industry, which suggests improving risk appetite inside the group.
3 names are rated bullish versus 0 bearish names, keeping the group tone mixed-bullish.
Leadership is concentrated in SAP, CRM, UBER, so those names are the cleanest read on group-level capital rotation.
The Sept 2 print was a thematic validation event: capital is concentrating into consumption-based AI data platforms after SNOW delivered a 38.7% beat, third consecutive quarter of product-revenue acceleration, and a full-year guide implying 36% growth — with roughly half the acceleration attributed to AI products. The reaction was violently asymmetric (gap to $384.56) while the broader tape wobbled, and Zacks' Sept 10 ETF-rotation piece (DUNK 10.66% SNOW weight, CLOU 7.31%, XDAT 6.26%, LRNZ 6.05%) confirms institutional routing into SNOW via baskets as a way to own the theme while trimming single-name risk. SNOW is up ~53% YTD per Zacks against a soft Internet Software industry; direct competitor Oracle remains a source of both validation (AI data demand) and capital competition, and Databricks' private-market raise keeps competitive pressure high. The theme is strengthening, but its expression is narrowing to proven consumption platforms.
The Sept 2 blowout plus the subsequent Goldman/JPM/Argus/Jefferies/Macquarie target-raise wave (to $350-$450) and Zacks' explicit ETF-routing recommendation have made SNOW the week's primary expression of enterprise AI data spend.
Post-print estimate repricing: FY27 consensus +14.0% and FY28 +11.4% over 30 days, with FY28 showing 3 upward and zero downward revisions, and Zacks reporting 8/12 near-quarter and 9/15 full-year analyst raises.
ETF-based capital rotation into the name: SNOW carries a 10.66% weight in Dana Unconstrained Equity (DUNK), 7.31% in Global X Cloud Computing (CLOU), 6.26% in Franklin Exponential Data (XDAT), and 6.05% in LRNZ, giving theme investors diversified access after the single-name gap.
Sell-side model upgrades to sustained 30%+ product revenue growth (Stifel, from 25%+) — a structural, not one-quarter, revision to the theme's growth rate.
AI Agents and Governed Data Workloads
Score: 76
Bullish
Enterprises are moving from AI pilots to governed, agentic workloads embedded in the data layer, and SNOW just quantified the monetization: management said AI products drove about half of the growth acceleration, CoCo reached 9,100 accounts (+2,000 sequentially), customer use cases grew 89% YoY, and 330+ capabilities shipped in 1H FY27 — all while non-GAAP operating margin guidance was raised to 14.5%, countering the fear that AI products are pure margin drag. The CrowdStrike Falcon Marketplace alliance with capacity drawdown extends the agentic thesis into security workloads, and the Natoma acquisition targets agentic control of business applications. The margin raise is the key upgrade: it suggests governed AI is accretive to economics, not just to narrative, though the moat must be re-proven each quarter via consumption and NRR metrics against Databricks.
Management's Sept 8 Goldman Communacopia 'AI flywheel' interview, the CoCo account count disclosure of 9,100 (+2,000 sequential), and the margin guidance raise all landed within days of the print, converting the agentic-AI narrative into hard guidance numbers.
AI products attributed by management to roughly half of the growth acceleration, with core platform consumption rising among CoCo users — direct evidence of agent-driven consumption pull-through.
The CrowdStrike alliance's Marketplace Capacity Drawdown structure turning existing warehouse commitments into security-software procurement, and expanded AWS/OpenAI/SAP partnerships broadening the ecosystem.
Operating margin guidance raised to 14.5% alongside 36% product growth — rare simultaneous growth-and-margin beats in a theme where investors feared AI mix dilution.
Key Stats
23 metrics total
Market Cap
$116.07B
P/E (TTM)
0.0
Forward P/E
109.5
Revenue Growth
35.1%
ROE
-48.1%
Beta
1.33
Full Metric Set
17 additional stats
Valuation Stack
Multiples and cash-flow framing.
Price / Sales
21.4
Price / Book
53.9
EV / EBITDA
-112.5
Quality & Balance Sheet
Margins, leverage, and liquidity.
Gross Margin
67.0%
Operating Margin
-17.0%
Debt / Equity
128.6
Current Ratio
0.94x
Quick Ratio
0.83x
Positioning & Range
Short interest and 52-week location.
Short % Float
5.2%
Short Ratio
4.12x
52W High
$384.56
52W Low
$118.30
From 52W High
-14.4%
From 52W Low
178.1%
Company Classification
Sector and industry context.
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Application
Additional Signals
Free Cash Flow
$1739526656.00
Detailed Analysis
Valuation
At $328.99, SNOW trades at 109.5x forward (Zacks cites 154.2x on its consensus basis), 21.4x trailing sales versus ~4.1x for the Internet Software industry, 53.9x book, and an 8.28 ; is -112.5x because remains negative, and the 1.5% FCF yield confirms the stock is priced for flawless multi-year execution. What sustains the multiple is the denominator's trajectory: FY27 product revenue guidance of $6.07B (36% growth), a Q3 guide of 37-38% YoY, 14.5% non-GAAP operating margin, 74% product gross margin, and a reiterated 23% adjusted FCF margin mean the premium is paid against an accelerating, margin-expanding base rather than a decelerating one. Analyst targets were lifted en masse post-print — Goldman to $436 from $300, JPM to $426 from $285, Argus to $450 from $300, Jefferies to $430 from $385, Macquarie to $350 from $200 — leaving the mean target of $418.29 (+27.2%) and median $440 (+33.7%) well above the price, with the $110-$525 spread reflecting extreme disagreement about the terminal multiple. The valuation is only defensible if ~35%+ product revenue growth and AI-workload monetization persist; any re-deceleration triggers compression with no cushion.
Balance Sheet
Total cash of $2.34B versus $2.76B debt leaves net debt of $419M (-0.36% of the $116.1B market cap), a slight deterioration from the prior net-cash position as acquisition spending and the $6B AWS infrastructure commitment consume liquidity. is 128.6%, the current ratio is 0.94, the quick ratio 0.83, the cash-to-debt ratio 0.85, and operating-cash-flow-to-debt 0.45x. FCF of $1.74B (22% trailing FCF margin per StockStory) funds the investment burden, but GAAP profitability remains negative (operating margin -17.0%, -48.06%, -9.02%). There is no near-term solvency risk given the quality of cash flow, but the balance sheet is not a defensive moat, and a growth stall would force abrupt spending cuts or dilution.
Growth
Growth is accelerating, not just strong: revenue grew 35.1% YoY to $1.55B in Q2 FY27 with product revenue +37% to $1.49B (96% of total), the third consecutive quarter of acceleration. CoCo (Cortex Code) reached 9,100 accounts with 2,000+ sequential adds, customer use cases rose 89% YoY, more than 330 product capabilities shipped in 1H FY27, and management stated AI products drove roughly half of the growth acceleration. FY27 product revenue guidance was raised to $6.07B (36% growth from 31%), Q3 is guided to $1.588-1.593B (37-38% YoY, above the ~$1.5B consensus), and Stifel now models sustained 30%+ annual product revenue growth versus its prior 25%+ frame. Consensus FY27 of $2.2069 and FY28 of $3.0045 imply powerful multi-year earnings scaling, and the non-GAAP operating margin raise to 14.5% signals operating leverage is arriving alongside growth — though GAAP operating margin is still -17.0% with AI-product gross-margin drag and Observe/Natoma integration costs.
Business Quality
Gross margin of 67.03% validates the data-cloud moat, and the quality trajectory is improving: management raised the non-GAAP operating margin outlook to 14.5%, guided 74% non-GAAP product gross margin, and reiterated a 23% adjusted FCF margin — evidence that the AI investment phase is converting into operating leverage rather than pure cash burn. GAAP metrics remain weak (operating margin -17.0%, margin -19.07%, -9.02%, -48.06%), reflecting deliberate AI and go-to-market investment, while the 6/6 beat record and 80.97% institutional ownership confirm execution credibility. The CoCo adoption curve (9,100 accounts, +2,000 sequentially), 89% YoY growth in customer use cases, and the CrowdStrike Marketplace capacity-drawdown structure deepen switching costs and platform stickiness. Liquidity ratios (current 0.94, quick 0.83) are thin, the one structural soft spot alongside AI-margin mix.
Capital Allocation
Management remains in investment mode: no buybacks or dividends, a stable share count (352.8M shares), the $6B AWS infrastructure commitment, expanded AWS/OpenAI/SAP partnerships, and the Observe and Natoma acquisitions — which pushed the company to a modest net-debt position of $419M. FCF of $1.74B funds internal investment, and the CrowdStrike Marketplace Capacity Drawdown program converts existing customer commitments into security-software procurement, improving stickiness without incremental capital. Capital deployment is growth-oriented rather than shareholder-return-oriented, which fits the stage; the shift from net cash to slight net debt is a watch item but is immaterial at 0.36% of market cap.
Estimate Revisions
The post-earnings revision wave remains powerful: FY27 consensus climbed from $1.93559 thirty days ago to $2.2069 (+14.0%) and FY28 from $2.69885 to $3.00447 (+11.4%), with FY28 showing 3 upward revisions and zero down-revisions over 30 days and one additional upward revision in the last 7 days; the +1q estimate has risen steadily from $0.57261 (90 days ago) to $0.59426. Zacks reports 8 of 12 analysts raised near-quarter estimates and 9 of 15 raised full-year estimates within a week of the print. The near-term rows show minor down-ticks (0q: 1 down in the last 7 days; +1q: 1 down in 7 days against 2 up in 30 days), which appear to be mechanical re-basing after the reported quarter rather than genuine deterioration, but they bear watching. Sentiment actions are uniformly positive — five target raises in the week after the print with zero rating downgrades in 90 days — the strongest revision/positioning signal in the dataset.