Snowflake closed the October 26 session at $334.95, up 2.93% from $325.43, in a Neutral macro regime where fell 5.45% to 18.39 and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.986%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.70% and the Nasdaq rose 0.82%. The session opened at $324.70, held above the October 23 low of $310.31, traded as high as $337.99 and closed near the high, retaking the at $324.36 and finishing essentially at the of $335.01. The caveat is volume: 2.62 million shares traded, only 0.59x the 20-day average of 4.43 million and 0.61x the 60-day average of 4.26 million, so the move lacks institutional confirmation. Momentum improved, with at 51.78 from 47.54 and the histogram narrowing to -1.914 from -3.209, though the line remains negative at -2.338 versus a -0.424 signal. The fundamental engine is strong: revenue grew 35.1%, product revenue grew 37%, net revenue retention was 126%, RPO is roughly $9 billion, 828 customers exceed $1 million of trailing product revenue, and FY27 product-revenue guidance is $6.07 billion, up 36%. All six supplied quarters beat consensus by an average of 18.8%, and current-year and next-year estimates are up about 15.0% and 12.2% over 90 days with 30-day revision breadth of 43-to-1 and 42-to-3. Profitability remains the counterweight: operating margin is -17.0%, margin -19.07%, -48.06%, current ratio 0.94, net debt is roughly $419 million, and the FCF yield is only 1.47%. Valuation is the other obstacle: a 110.89x forward , 21.74x trailing sales, 5.83 reported and -111.08x leave little room for execution error, and the FY27 adjusted FCF-margin guide of 23% sits below FY26's 25%. News flow is stale, with nothing supplied after September 25, and it is genuinely mixed: the CrowdStrike Marketplace capacity-drawdown collaboration, Liquibase Secure and a new institutional position are positive, while margin warnings and a valuation piece arguing the stock is roughly 325% overvalued are negative. The December 2 report is 36 days away, outside the one-month window but the decisive test inside the six- and twelve-month horizons. We therefore hold HOLD across the overall, one-month, six-month and one-year views: the October 23 and October 26 recovery justifies a modest score increase to 48 from 45, but a low-volume advance into the is not yet a confirmed breakout. SNOW remains an Aggressive, High- Growth satellite; a 4.82% and 54.1% 20-day realized volatility demand small sizing and a hard stop below the $302.24 October 16 low.
投资判断
实时价格
$335.12
推荐分数
48%
48%
置信度
62%
62%
各期限展望
1个月
持有
短线
6个月
持有
中期
1年
持有
长期
核心催化
No supplied article postdates September 25, so none explains the October 16 break or the October 26 recovery; within the available coverage the August 31 CrowdStrike Marketplace Capacity Drawdown collaboration is the most consequential business catalyst because it can convert already-committed Snowflake capacity into Falcon, SIEM and telemetry workloads, but its effect on consumption and margins is unquantified and not yet reflected in guidance.
稳定性分类High-Beta Growth组合角色Satellite Upside回撤风险High风险画像AggressiveEnterprise AI Data InfrastructureHigh-Beta GrowthElevated Forward ValuationSMA20 TestRate-Sensitive Software
决策工作台
价格地图
60日设置
价格轨道
$335.12
止损
当前
$293
$322
$350
$379
止损位
$300.00
买入
$312.00 - $328.00
止盈
$355.00 - $372.00
风险/回报
2.2x
有吸引力
到止损下行
-10.5%
到止盈上行
+11.0%
仓位提示
Limit exposure to roughly 25-35% of a normal growth-sleeve position. is 4.82% of price, 20-day realized volatility is 54.1% and is 18.39, so use wide stops and small size. Do not chase $334.95 into the $337.99-$343.88 resistance band on 0.59x average volume; add on either a controlled retest of the $312-$328 zone or a close above $343.88 on volume near the 4.43 million 20-day average. Do not carry a full-size position into the December 2 report without an explicit event-risk budget.
投资逻辑快照
什么情况涨
The October 23 and October 26 sessions reversed the prior run's bearish near-term call: the stock held above the October 22 low of $306.85, then advanced to $334.95 while retaking the $324.36 and closing essentially on the $337.99 high, while rebounded to 36.02 million, the histogram narrowed from -4.04 to -1.91 and recovered from 41.83 to 51.78. That creates higher lows in both price ($302.24, $306.85, $310.31, $322.74) inside a still-intact long-term uptrend where the sits 24.16% above the . The prior entry zone of $305-$320 was retested on the October 22 low of $306.85 and held, so the risk/reward has improved materially from the $313.96 close on which we previously issued a one-month SELL. The fundamental engine supports the bounce: 35.1% revenue growth, 37% product growth, 126% net revenue retention, roughly $9 billion of RPO, 828 customers above $1 million of trailing product revenue, a $6.07 billion FY27 product-revenue guide up 36%, six of six beats averaging 18.8% surprises, and 90-day revisions of +15.0% for the current year and +12.2% for next with 30-day breadth of 43-to-1 and 42-to-3. With 45 of 52 ratings at Buy or better and a $425.14 mean target 26.9% above spot, the intermediate fundamental case remains constructive even if the near-term tape is not yet fully confirmed.
什么情况跌
The most honest argument against owning SNOW is that the October 26 advance is a low-quality, low-volume move into a still-damaged intermediate structure, purchased at a valuation that requires flawless execution from a company with negative GAAP margins. Volume was 2.62 million shares, 0.59x the 4.43 million 20-day average, and price is only at the $335.01 while lower highs from $370.55 to $337.99 remain intact; the line is still -2.338 against a -0.424 signal with a negative histogram, and at 36.02 million is 26.8% below the 49.24 million of October 9 while price is only 9.2% below that day's close, which is the signature of distribution rather than accumulation. Meanwhile the multiple is 110.89x forward earnings, 21.74x trailing sales, 5.83x and a 1.47% FCF yield, with an operating margin of -17.0%, margin of -19.07%, of -48.06%, a 0.94 current ratio and about $419 million of net debt. The short thesis is straightforward: committed capacity converts into consumption more slowly than the $9 billion RPO implies while lower-margin AI and security workloads dilute contribution margin, and FY27 adjusted FCF-margin guidance of 23% is already below FY26's 25%. Upcoming October-quarter consensus of $0.59992 sits 3.2% below the $0.62 just reported, so the beat-and-raise cadence must continue from a smaller base. Notably, short interest at 5.22% of float with a 3.2 ratio is below the 5.47% and 4.9 days to cover cited for August 31, so the supplied data do not show rising bearish conviction, which also means no squeeze fuel exists to power the bounce further.
A daily close below the October 16 low of $302.24 on volume above the 20-day average of about 4.43 million shares would invalidate the October 23-26 base attempt and confirm that the reclaim was a false breakout; exit or avoid adding rather than treating that move as a routine pullback. Conversely, a close above $343.88 on above-average volume would validate the reversal and justify upgrading the near-term view.
Multiple-compression risk: a 110.89x forward , 21.74x trailing , 54.92x , 5.83x and 1.47% FCF yield leave the stock vulnerable to de-rating even if results are met, and the 10-year yield at 4.986% keeps discount-rate pressure on long-duration software.
Profitability and liquidity risk: GAAP operating margin is -17.0%, margin -19.07%, net margin -20.07%, -48.06%, current and quick ratios are 0.94 and 0.83, and net debt is about $419.1 million; reported FCF of $1.7395 billion also exceeds reported operating cash flow of $1.2533 billion, an inconsistency that requires reconciliation.
Execution risk into December 2: upcoming October-quarter consensus of $0.59992 is 3.2% below the latest $0.62 actual, and the company must convert roughly $9 billion of RPO and deliver its $6.07 billion FY27 product-revenue guide while holding adjusted FCF margin near the 23% guide despite lower-margin AI and security workloads.
Technical and positioning risk: price is only at the $335.01 , the reclaim came on 0.59x average volume, is 4.82% of price and 20-day realized volatility is 54.1%, so a high-volume close below $302.24 would confirm the failed stabilization and a 12.9% gap to the 52-week high of $384.56 remains fully open.
接下来关注
下一次财报：2026年12月2日
No supplied article postdates September 25, so none explains the October 16 break or the October 26 recovery; within the available coverage the August 31 CrowdStrike Marketplace Capacity Drawdown collaboration is the most consequential business catalyst because it can convert already-committed Snowflake capacity into Falcon, SIEM and telemetry workloads, but its effect on consumption and margins is unquantified and not yet reflected in guidance.
信号仪表盘
决策输入
6 个信号
基本面
26.9%
距分析师均值目标空间
At $334.95, trailing is unavailable because GAAP earnings are negative, and the forward is 110.89x, which prices the next-year consensus of $3.02051. The current-year consensus of $2.22372 implies roughly 150.6x current-year earnings, and the step to $3.02051 represents about 35.8% growth, so forward divided by that one-year growth rate is approximately 3.09x, versus the 5.83x reported ; both materially exceed a conventional 1.5x growth screen. Trailing of 21.74x, of 54.92x, an FCF yield of 1.47% and of -111.08x, which is meaningless while is negative, all indicate a premium valuation with limited present cash-flow support. The September 25 comparison article frames SNOW at roughly 16x forward sales versus roughly 45x for PLTR, but that spread reflects a genuine profitability gap (SNOW's operating margin is -17.0% versus Palantir's reported 62% adjusted operating margin) rather than a free discount, and no same-date peer set or historical-multiple series is provided. Overall the stock is expensive relative to current profitability and leaves little margin for execution error or further rate-driven de-rating.
技术面
Neutral
趋势质量
At $334.95 the stock sits 3.27% above the of $324.36, essentially on the of $335.01 and 28.22% above the of $261.23. The -- stack remains correctly ordered and the is 24.16% above the , so no death cross is remotely near. The October 26 session produced a higher low at $322.74 versus $310.31 on October 23, $306.85 on October 22 and $302.24 on October 16, while the sequence of lower highs from $370.55 on October 12 to $368.63, $356.84, $343.88 and $337.99 creates a contracting triangle rather than a confirmed reversal. A close above $337.99 and then $343.88 is still required to repair the intermediate trend; a close below $322.74 would break the rising-lows structure.
财报
36天
Improving
The quarter ended July 31, 2026 delivered of $0.62 versus $0.44698 consensus, a 38.7% beat and the largest of the six supplied quarters, lifting the six-quarter average surprise to about 18.8%; no supplied article explains the subsequent run to $368.89 on October 9 or the round-trip to $306.84 on October 16, and the upcoming October-quarter consensus of $0.59992 is about 3.2% below the latest actual, so the December 2 report must show sequential durability.
新闻
Mixed-Bearish
新闻基调
No supplied article postdates September 25, so none explains the October 16 break or the October 26 recovery; within the available coverage the August 31 CrowdStrike Marketplace Capacity Drawdown collaboration is the most consequential business catalyst because it can convert already-committed Snowflake capacity into Falcon, SIEM and telemetry workloads, but its effect on consumption and margins is unquantified and not yet reflected in guidance.
宏观
Neutral
4.99% 10Y / 18.4 VIX
at 18.39 is mid-Neutral and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.986% keeps discount-rate pressure on a 110.89x forward software name, so SNOW still needs its own December catalyst rather than a macro tailwind to sustain the rebound.
稳定性
High-Beta Growth
Satellite Upside
Snowflake remains a scaled enterprise data-platform franchise with 35.1% revenue growth, 37% product-revenue growth, 126% net revenue retention, roughly $9 billion of RPO and positive reported free cash flow, which supports Medium thesis durability rather than a speculative or binary classification. The offset is that GAAP operating and margins are -17.0% and -19.07%, is -48.06%, current and quick ratios are 0.94 and 0.83, net debt is roughly $419 million, and a 110.89x forward with 54.1% 20-day realized volatility exposes holders to severe multiple and sentiment drawdowns. It belongs as Satellite Upside inside an aggressive growth sleeve, not as a core anchor, until operating leverage and GAAP profitability become visible. With at 4.82% of price and beta of 1.351, 5% daily swings are routine and a 20-30% drawdown from the $384.56 52-week high should be treated as a realistic risk rather than an exceptional event.
分析师目标区间
均值目标
$425.14
高低目标
$110 / $525
分析师中值目标
$443.50
共识区间
$110 - $525
— 位分析师
Mean
$110$425$525
市场共识
The $425.14 mean target implies about 26.9% upside from $334.95, the $443.50 median about 32.4%, and the $525 high about 56.7%, while the $110 low implies roughly 67.2% downside; the $415 target spread is exceptionally wide and signals real disagreement about long-run margins. The formal analyst-count field is null, although the recommendation summary totals 52 ratings: 10 Strong Buy, 35 Buy, 6 Hold and 1 Sell, a modest improvement from last month's 9/36/6/1. With zero rating changes in 90 days, the post-Q2 price-target hikes are the only fresh evidence and they predate the October 16 break, so the consensus mean should be treated as directional context rather than a downside floor or a price magnet.
筹码脉冲
内部人信号
Neutral
净偏向
Balanced
内部人持股
2.9%
机构持股
81.0%
解读
The sparse, malformed filings provide no reliable evidence of discretionary insider buying or selling, so they should not be read as a signal of management's near-term confidence in either direction.
重要活动
Only two supplied entries exist, both for Benoit Dageville, Officer and Director: one shows 25,000 direct shares valued at $6.625 million (an implied price near $265 per share) and the other shows 7,500 indirect shares with no value. The date fields are coded as '149' and '148' and the transaction-type fields are blank, so these records cannot be reliably classified as open-market purchases, sales, option exercises or scheduled dispositions.
市场背景
行业
Software - Application
Neutral
情绪
-7
跟踪股票
14
分组
industry
Software - Application 行业 当前情绪为 Neutral，板块平均评分约 51 分，资金偏好与评分正在走弱，且leadership is concentrated in SAP, CRM, NOW。
Snowflake is a direct enterprise AI data infrastructure exposure: 35.1% revenue growth, 37% product-revenue growth, 126% net revenue retention, roughly $9 billion of RPO and a $6.07 billion FY27 product-revenue guide support the structural demand case, and enterprises can build AI applications on governed data inside the platform without committing to a single model provider. The CrowdStrike Marketplace collaboration and the Liquibase Secure launch deepen ecosystem pull, but AI and security workloads carry lower contribution margins and the 6% Q2 adjusted FCF margin underscores the gap between demand and profitability. The theme is structurally intact but tactically mixed: SNOW reclaimed its and reached its on October 26, yet the advance came on 0.59x average volume and the supplied news flow contains no post-September 25 evidence of peer capital rotation.
The December 2 report, 36 days away, is the next clear test of whether roughly $9 billion of RPO and committed marketplace capacity convert into consumption without further margin deterioration.
Hedge-fund holders rose to 103 from 80 in Q2 with Point72 more than twentyfolding its position, per the September 24 investor-letter coverage, though this is lagged positioning data that predates the October pullback.
The CrowdStrike partnership converts pre-committed Snowflake capacity into Falcon subscriptions and routes Falcon Onum telemetry back into Snowflake, a structural consumption driver that does not require new budget approval cycle by cycle.
On October 26 SNOW gained 2.93% to $334.95 while the S&P 500 rose 0.70% and the Nasdaq rose 0.82%, a relative-strength improvement that nonetheless needs volume confirmation above the 4.43 million 20-day average.
Long-Duration Software Rate Sensitivity
评分: -20
Mixed-Bearish
At a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.986%, just below the prior 4.988% but still near 5%, discount-rate pressure on long-duration software remains in place. SNOW is particularly exposed with a 110.89x forward , 21.74x trailing sales, 5.83x and a 1.47% FCF yield, and the October 26 recovery occurred as fell to 18.39 and the Nasdaq rose 0.82%, which cuts both ways: it shows idiosyncratic resilience, but it also means the stock is now more dependent on its own December 2 catalyst than on macro relief.
The 10-year is still near 5% and sits at 18.39 inside the Neutral band, so any further yield spike would hit a 110.89x forward multiple before it hits the underlying business.
The 10-year Treasury yield eased only to 4.986% from 4.988% while dropped to 18.39 from 19.45, a modest but directionally helpful move for long-duration equity multiples.
SNOW's beta of 1.351 and 54.1% 20-day realized volatility make it unusually sensitive to sentiment shifts, yet it still outperformed a 0.70% S&P gain on October 26 with a 2.93% advance.
Macquarie's September price-target raise to $350 from $200 with a Neutral rating is a clear marker of the divide: analysts are lifting numbers on fundamentals while capping the multiple they will pay.
关键指标
23 项指标
市值
$118.17B
市盈率 (TTM)
0.0
远期市盈率
110.9
营收增速
35.1%
净资产收益率
-48.1%
Beta 系数
1.35
完整指标集
另外 17 项指标
估值结构
估值倍数与现金流框架。
市销率
21.7
市净率
54.9
企业价值 / EBITDA
-111.1
质量与资产负债表
利润率、杠杆与流动性。
毛利率
67.0%
营业利润率
-17.0%
资产负债率
128.6
流动比率
0.94x
速动比率
0.83x
仓位与价格区间
空头仓位与52周区间位置。
流通盘空头占比
5.2%
空头回补天数
3.20x
52周最高
$384.56
52周最低
$118.30
距52周高点
-12.9%
距52周低点
183.1%
公司分类
板块与行业背景。
板块
Technology
行业
Software - Application
其他信号
自由现金流
$1739526656.00
详细分析
估值
At $334.95, trailing is unavailable because GAAP earnings are negative, and the forward is 110.89x, which prices the next-year consensus of $3.02051. The current-year consensus of $2.22372 implies roughly 150.6x current-year earnings, and the step to $3.02051 represents about 35.8% growth, so forward divided by that one-year growth rate is approximately 3.09x, versus the 5.83x reported ; both materially exceed a conventional 1.5x growth screen. Trailing of 21.74x, of 54.92x, an FCF yield of 1.47% and of -111.08x, which is meaningless while is negative, all indicate a premium valuation with limited present cash-flow support. The September 25 comparison article frames SNOW at roughly 16x forward sales versus roughly 45x for PLTR, but that spread reflects a genuine profitability gap (SNOW's operating margin is -17.0% versus Palantir's reported 62% adjusted operating margin) rather than a free discount, and no same-date peer set or historical-multiple series is provided. Overall the stock is expensive relative to current profitability and leaves little margin for execution error or further rate-driven de-rating.
资产负债表
Debt-to-equity of 128.57% (about 1.29x) indicates meaningful but manageable leverage. Cash of $2.3447 billion is below debt of $2.7638 billion, leaving about $419.1 million of net debt, which is only 0.35% of the $118.17 billion market cap, so solvency is not the primary risk. Cash-to-debt is 0.85x and operating cash flow of $1.2533 billion covers only 0.45x of total debt. Reported free cash flow of $1.7395 billion exceeds reported operating cash flow, so the supplied figures do not reconcile cleanly and cash conversion should be verified against the filing. Current and quick ratios of 0.94 and 0.83 provide thin short-term liquidity headroom, and of -48.06% with of -9.02% confirms the business has not yet produced mature GAAP returns.
增长
Revenue grew 35.1% year over year and product revenue grew 37% to roughly $1.49 billion; net revenue retention is 126%, RPO is about $9 billion, 828 customers generate more than $1 million of trailing product revenue, and FY27 product-revenue guidance is $6.07 billion, up 36%. Reported year-over-year earnings growth is unavailable in the bundle, but consensus of $2.22372 this year and $3.02051 next year implies roughly 35.8% growth. Margin expansion is not yet evident: Q2 adjusted free-cash-flow margin was 6%, flat year over year, and FY27 adjusted FCF-margin guidance of 23% is below FY26's 25%, while GAAP operating and margins remain -17.0% and -19.07%. The upcoming October-quarter consensus of $0.59992 is about 3.2% below the latest $0.62 actual, and the following quarter sits at $0.59526, so the December print must show continued consumption and operating leverage rather than relying on the prior beat.
生意质量
Gross margin of 67.03%, 126% net revenue retention, roughly $9 billion of RPO and a multi-cloud enterprise data platform support a credible franchise and a real expansion engine. That quality has not converted into mature GAAP returns: operating margin is -17.0%, margin -19.07%, net margin -20.07%, -9.02% and -48.06%, with current and quick ratios of 0.94 and 0.83. Institutional ownership of 80.98% versus 2.87% insider ownership makes the stock sensitive to institutional positioning, while short interest of 5.22% of float and a 3.2 short ratio represent a bear cohort but, compared with the 5.47% of float and 4.9 days to cover cited for August 31, do not indicate rising bearish conviction. The franchise justifies a premium to slower-growing software; the current profitability profile does not clearly justify 21.74x trailing sales.
资本配置
Cash of $2.3447 billion against debt of $2.7638 billion leaves about $419.1 million of net debt and the company pays no dividend. The bundle contains no buyback authorization or share-count history, so the pace of dilution or repurchase cannot be measured from this data; shares outstanding of 352.8 million versus a 343.33 million float is the only capital-structure reference available. With a 1.47% FCF yield and current and quick ratios below 1, large incremental capital returns would be less defensible than preserving flexibility for product development and balance-sheet needs unless incremental returns clearly exceed the cost of capital.
预期修正
Estimate momentum is solid over 60-90 days but has flattened over the last week. Current-year of $2.22372 is up about 15.0% from $1.93436 ninety days ago, and next-year of $3.02051 is up about 12.2% from $2.69185. Thirty-day revision breadth is strongly favorable for the current year at 43 increases versus 1 decrease and for next year at 42 versus 3, while next-quarter breadth is less convincing at 22 versus 13 and the current quarter is 39 versus 1. Over the last seven days the current-year estimate moved only from $2.22305 to $2.22372 and next year from $3.00520 to $3.02051, essentially flat. There were zero upgrades, downgrades or initiations in the last 90 days; visible actions were price-target increases with grades unchanged after Q2, including JP Morgan to $426 from $285, Argus to $450 from $300, Goldman Sachs to $436 from $300 and Macquarie to $350 from $200, plus Needham maintaining Buy at $450 on October 12 before the October 16 selloff. The direction remains supportive for the six-month case but offers little near-term protection for the valuation.