Rivian closed September 11 at $16.03, essentially flat (-0.12%) but with an eventful session: the stock opened at $16.26, rallied to an intraday high of $16.81 — its highest print since mid-August and decisively through the ($16.12) — then faded all the way back to $16.03, closing above the ($16.00) for a fourth consecutive session. This is the third session in a row that price has pierced the intraday and closed below it, establishing a clear overhead rejection zone at $16.12-16.45 with a secondary supply shelf at $16.81. The momentum picture continued to improve: the histogram expanded for a fourth consecutive positive session (+0.001, +0.006, +0.012, +0.015), the line (-0.054) is closing on the signal line (-0.069), and held at 49.6 — but fell from 280.2M to 261.2M on the session, a warning that the intraday strength was sold into. The macro regime relaxed materially: dropped 11.2% to 15.84, the S&P (+0.86%), Nasdaq (+0.96%), and Dow (+0.98%) all rallied, though the 10-year yield ticked up to 4.97%, still a headwind for a name burning $1.54B of FCF annually. The fundamental thesis remains constructive and gained a new proof point: Zacks now projects FY27 of +$1.74 (the first positive full-year estimate in the dataset) on $11.38B of revenue (+56.1% YoY), alongside FY26 of -$2.27 and 35.3% revenue growth, with four consecutive trailing quarterly beats. The CFO transition (Claire McDonough to GE Vernova, effective October 30) remains the dominant overhang, and near-quarter estimates are drifting (0q 4 up / 5 down over 30 days). The overall rating moves to HOLD at 51 (from 48): the 1-month view stays HOLD — genuine momentum repair, but the rejection and fading on a strong market day demand confirmation — the 6-month view stays HOLD pending a volume-confirmed reclaim of $16.45, and the 1-year view stays BUY on intact annual revision momentum, the gross-profit and first-positive-FY27-estimate proof points, and R2 execution optionality. Key levels: $15.55 and $14.40 as downside tests, $16.12-16.45 as the confirmation trigger zone, $16.81 as secondary resistance.
Decision
Live price
$16.03
Recommendation score
51%
51%
Confidence
56%
56%
Outlook by horizon
1M
HOLD
Near
6M
HOLD
Mid
1Y
BUY
Long
Primary catalyst
The September 11 session is the most market-moving development: the intraday push to $16.81 (highest since mid-August) proved buyers are willing to test the supply zone, but the complete fade back to $16.03 with negative shows sellers still own that zone — the tape has now defined its battlefield precisely at $16.12-16.81. A volume-confirmed close above $16.45 would reset the recovery; continued rejection keeps the September 8-11 sequence a low-conviction coil. The CFO resignation remains the dominant fundamental overhang, and the November 3 report (with Q3 ramp-cost disclosure from an interim-CFO-led finance organization) is the decisive confirmation event, with the newly positive FY27 estimate (+$1.74) raising the stakes for confirmation.
Reduce to 25-50% of normal satellite size (0.5-1% of portfolio) — the hold is genuine and the macro regime relaxed ( 15.84, broad rally), but the ($16.12) has rejected price three sessions running, September 11's fade from $16.81 came with falling on 0.89x average volume, and the 10-year at 4.97% still caps multiples for a 1.62-beta name with 14.1% short interest and ~45% realized volatility. Accumulate on a pullback into the $15.60-16.10 zone ( retest) OR add on a volume-confirmed close above $16.45 with follow-through through $16.81; trim into strength near $18.50-19.25. Do not chase intraday probes above the at full size until a daily close confirms.
Thesis Snapshot
Why It Works
The tape is doing exactly what a bottoming process looks like, and the backdrop just turned friendly: after the histogram hit its most negative reading since early August (-0.023 on September 4), price reclaimed the on September 8 (+2.7% to $16.17) and has held it for four sessions while the histogram expanded for four consecutive days (+0.001, +0.006, +0.012, +0.015). Simultaneously, collapsed 11.2% to 15.84 and all three major indices rallied 0.45-0.98% on September 11 — the first session in this window where the macro regime is no longer actively punishing a 1.62-beta name. September 11's push to $16.81, the highest print since mid-August, proves buyers are testing supply that was untouchable two weeks ago. The fundamental picture strengthened too: the Zacks FY27 estimate of +$1.74 on $11.38B of revenue (+56.1%) gives the loss-narrowing arc a concrete terminal point, four consecutive quarters beat on both and revenue, annual revision momentum is intact (FY26 from -$2.70 to -$2.44 over 90 days, 11 up / 1 down in 30 days, zero downgrades in 90 days and all recent actions PT raises), and the CEO's ~$1.18M of open-market buying plus institutional accumulation of a net ~75M shares in Q2 back the 1-year BUY thesis. If Q3 confirms R2 execution on November 3, the path to the $18.50-19.25 analyst zone reopens with ~18% upside from here and considerably more from a $15.60-16.10 entry.
What Breaks It
The recovery remains unproven where it matters, and September 11 added fresh evidence: the intraday run to $16.81 was fully sold, with the stock closing 4.6% off its high, falling ~19M shares, and volume at just 0.89x the 20-day average — while every genuine distribution day in this dataset (July 31, August 17, August 28) printed on 2-3x volume. This is now the third consecutive session of ($16.12) rejection, and the pattern eerily mirrors August 27-28, when a histogram peak at +0.153 preceded the August 28 breakdown. The - gap of ~$0.12 keeps a death cross a live risk on any stall. Near-quarter estimates continue to erode (0q 4 up / 5 down over 30 days, +1q 4 up / 7 down), the CFO who led the IPO, the $13.7B raise, and the cost reset leaves October 30 — three sessions before Q3 earnings that carry ~$100M of guided ramp costs — and 14.1% short interest with Morgan Stanley Underweight ($14, ~12.5% downside) reflects credible institutional skepticism. The 10-year yield rose to 4.97% even as stocks rallied, and at 3.95x sales with a Zacks valuation grade of F, valuation offers little cushion; a break of $15.55/$14.40 would target the $12.39 52-week low, a further ~23% drawdown.
A daily close below $13.85 — especially if accompanied by any negative R2 production commentary, a delayed permanent CFO successor announcement, or a guidance reset from the interim finance team — would invalidate the base structure and the R2 execution thesis, forcing an exit. On the flip side, a decisive loss of $15.55 on above-average volume before any reclaim of $16.45 would signal the September 8-11 repair has failed (the August 27-28 histogram-peak-then-breakdown sequence repeating) and re-arm the downside scenario. On the fundamental side, the first downward FY26 annual estimate revisions accumulating in the 30-day window (currently just 1 of 12) would signal the revision momentum has genuinely reversed.
CFO transition effective October 30, three sessions before Q3 earnings on November 3; a delayed permanent successor or interim-period guidance drift could compound uncertainty precisely when Q3 automotive gross margin is guided lower on ~$100M of R2 ramp costs
Three consecutive sessions of ($16.12) rejection with the September 11 fade from $16.81 occurring on falling and 0.89x average volume; a stall would compress the - gap (~$0.12) toward a death cross, and a break of $15.55/$14.40 re-opens the $12.39 52-week low, ~23% below current levels
Macro remains two-sided: fell 11.2% to 15.84 and equities rallied, but the 10-year yield rose to 4.97% — for a 1.62-beta name burning $1.54B of FCF annually with -$43M net cash and 14.1% short interest, rising rates keep dilution risk alive, and a capital raise at a transition-discounted valuation would be doubly punitive against ~45% realized volatility
Watch Next
Next earnings: Nov 3, 2026
The September 11 session is the most market-moving development: the intraday push to $16.81 (highest since mid-August) proved buyers are willing to test the supply zone, but the complete fade back to $16.03 with negative shows sellers still own that zone — the tape has now defined its battlefield precisely at $16.12-16.81. A volume-confirmed close above $16.45 would reset the recovery; continued rejection keeps the September 8-11 sequence a low-conviction coil. The CFO resignation remains the dominant fundamental overhang, and the November 3 report (with Q3 ramp-cost disclosure from an interim-CFO-led finance organization) is the decisive confirmation event, with the newly positive FY27 estimate (+$1.74) raising the stakes for confirmation.
Signal Dashboard
Decision inputs
6 signals
Fundamental
20.0%
Upside to analyst mean target
At $16.03, RIVN trades at 3.95x trailing sales, 4.28x book value, and 1.01x enterprise-value-to-market-cap, with a negative forward (-8.98x) and (-8.59x) reflecting continued losses (profit margin -54.95%). The prior fair-ratio framework pegged a reasonable near 2.3x versus an auto industry average of ~0.7x, so the multiple still embeds substantial R2-driven improvement — Zacks grades the stock F on valuation, explicitly flagging a premium to peers. The offset is a growth curve that is steepening: consensus now projects FY26 revenue of $7.29B (+35.3%) and FY27 revenue of $11.38B (+56.1%) with FY27 turning positive at +$1.74, which would make the current-year defensible if the ramp executes. The stock sits 29.4% below its 52-week high ($22.69) and 29.4% above its 52-week low ($12.39) at the 35.3rd percentile of its annual range — an improving but not yet cheap entry. The mean analyst target of $19.23 implies ~19.9% upside from $16.03, with the $13-$25 range capturing binary execution risk. There is no to compute because current-year earnings are negative; valuation remains a call option on R2 scale, and the September rally has modestly worsened entry math relative to the prior $14.30-14.90 zone.
Technical
Neutral
Trend quality
Price closed September 11 at $16.03, above the ($16.004) for the fourth consecutive session and above the ($15.97). The September 8 session (+2.7% to $16.17) reclaimed the / cluster, and this reclaim has now held through four sessions. However, the ($16.12) remains the last moving average overhead and has now rejected price three sessions running — September 10's high of $16.405 and September 11's high of $16.81 both saw price close back below $16.13, with September 11's fade from $16.81 to $16.03 (-4.6% off the high) establishing a second supply shelf near $16.81 (the mid-August rejection zone). The - gap has compressed to roughly $0.12, keeping a death cross a live risk if price stalls again, though the immediate path requires renewed weakness below $16.00. Structure is a basing/recovery attempt between $14.40 and $16.81 rather than an outright downtrend, with the upper half of that range now acting as a persistent absorption zone.
Earnings
52d
Turning Positive
Q2 2026: revenue of $1.66B grew 27.2% YoY (+4.25% revenue surprise), adjusted beat by 18.9%, and Rivian posted its first positive consolidated gross profit of ~$179M (11% margin); management raised FY26 delivery guidance to 65-70k but guided Q3 automotive gross profit lower due to R2 ramp costs.
News
Mixed-Bullish
Headline tone
The September 11 session is the most market-moving development: the intraday push to $16.81 (highest since mid-August) proved buyers are willing to test the supply zone, but the complete fade back to $16.03 with negative shows sellers still own that zone — the tape has now defined its battlefield precisely at $16.12-16.81. A volume-confirmed close above $16.45 would reset the recovery; continued rejection keeps the September 8-11 sequence a low-conviction coil. The CFO resignation remains the dominant fundamental overhang, and the November 3 report (with Q3 ramp-cost disclosure from an interim-CFO-led finance organization) is the decisive confirmation event, with the newly positive FY27 estimate (+$1.74) raising the stakes for confirmation.
Macro
Neutral
4.97% 10Y / 15.8 VIX
collapsing 11.2% to 15.84 and a broad equity rally (S&P +0.86%, Nasdaq +0.96%) remove the risk-off penalty that was strangling this 1.62-beta name, but the 10-year yield at 4.97% still compresses pre-profit growth multiples — a neutral tape that now permits, rather than punishes, multiple repair for RIVN if its own catalysts cooperate.
Stability
High-Beta Growth
Satellite Upside
Rivian remains a pre-profit, high-beta (1.62) EV maker whose investment case rests on flawless R2 mass-market ramp execution and continued margin repair, complicated by a CFO transition effective October 30 that lands three sessions before Q3 earnings on November 3. The balance sheet is neutral at best ($5.31B cash vs $5.35B debt, -$43M net cash) with FCF burn of ~$1.54B annually, keeping dilution risk alive through the transition period. The tape continued to improve through September 11: price closed at $16.03, held above the ($16.00) for a fourth consecutive session, the histogram expanded for a fourth straight day (+0.015), and the macro regime relaxed sharply ( down 11.2% to 15.84 with all three major indices up 0.45-0.98%). However, the session's intraday fade from a $16.81 high back to $16.03 on sub-average volume (0.89x the 20-day average), with falling ~19M shares, shows the ($16.12) and mid-August supply are still rejecting buyers, so the stock belongs only in a strictly sized satellite growth sleeve pending November 3 confirmation.
Analyst Spread
Mean Target
$19.23
High / Low
$13 / $25
Median Target
$18.50
Consensus range
$13 - $25
— analysts
Mean
$13$19$25
Consensus
The mean target is $19.23 (~19.9% upside from $16.03), the median is $18.50, and the $13-$25 range reflects high disagreement about R2 execution. The recommendations summary shows 5 strong-buy / 7 buy / 8 hold / 3 sell / 2 strong-sell, with the strong-buy count rising from 3 to 5 over three months and no upgrades or downgrades in the last 90 days — recent actions were all PT raises: RBC ($14 to $16), TD Cowen ($20 to $21), Wells Fargo ($15 to $16), Morgan Stanley ($13 to $14 but still Underweight), and Needham maintained $23. With the stock at $16.03, Morgan Stanley's target implies only ~12.5% downside, RBC's raised $16 target sits almost exactly at the current price, and the bull anchors ($21-$23) are ~31-43% above. The wide dispersion underscores that the outcome hinges on R2 execution and the CFO-transition resolution, with November 3 as the catalyst that should narrow the range.
Positioning Pulse
Insider Signal
Moderate Buy
Net Bias
Buy-heavy
Insider Own.
34.5%
Institutional Own.
40.4%
Interpretation
The CEO's continued open-market buying is the strongest confidence signal, and McDonough's own $278k purchase just before accepting an external CFO role argues against an information-driven exit; however, the loss of the CFO who led the cost-reset and $13.7B fundraising efforts tempers the read-through and adds transition risk through the October 30 handover.
Notable activity
CEO Robert Scaringe reported purchases of 71,429 shares (~$991k) and another 71,429 shares (~$188k); CFO Claire McDonough reported a purchase of 18,501 shares (~$278k) — days before announcing her resignation effective October 30. Her destination, the GE Vernova CFO role, is a promotion-level career move, which supports the company's statement that the exit is personal and not disagreement-driven.
Market Context
Industry
Auto Manufacturers
Mixed-Bullish
Sentiment
17
Tracked names
4
Grouping
industry
Auto Manufacturers industry is currently Mixed-Bullish with an average recommendation score near 48. capital and conviction are improving across the group, and leadership is concentrated in TSLA, F, NIO.
Rotation Drivers
Average recommendation deltas are trending higher across Auto Manufacturers industry, which suggests improving risk appetite inside the group.
0 names are rated bullish versus 0 bearish names, keeping the group tone mixed-bullish.
Leadership is concentrated in TSLA, F, NIO, so those names are the cleanest read on group-level capital rotation.
Rivian's R2 platform is the critical catalyst for scaling from a premium niche EV maker to a mass-market player. Q2 2026 delivered the first positive consolidated gross profit, management raised FY26 delivery guidance to 65-70k vehicles with R2 deliveries underway since June, and the newly positive FY27 estimate of +$1.74 on $11.38B of revenue gives the ramp a quantified payoff. The September 8-11 tape (four-session hold, four-session expanding histogram) shows near-term technical conviction repairing, but the has rejected price three sessions running and fell on September 11's probe to $16.81, so the theme's near-term score remains below its structural fundamentals. The CFO handover on October 30 and the November 3 report raise the execution bar.
The four-session hold with an expanding histogram, the first positive FY27 estimate, and the September 11 supply test at $16.81 — all arriving just before the October 30 CFO handover and the Q3 ramp-cost quarter — mark the transition point where the market must choose between absorption-risk pricing and R2 expansion proof points.
11 upward FY26 revisions in the last 30 days versus 1 downward, plus the first positive FY27 estimate (+$1.74) on 56% revenue growth — structural support beneath the narrative
Four-session expanding histogram (+0.015 on September 11 from -0.023 on September 4) and a held reclaim — near-term capital is cautiously rotating back in, but on 0.80-0.89x average volume with declining on the latest supply test
EV Autonomy / ADAS
Score: 50
Mixed-Bullish
Rivian's Autonomy+ system is gaining credibility as a challenger to Tesla FSD, with third-party testing showing it surpasses GM Super Cruise and trails Tesla mainly on city streets and point-to-point driving. The upcoming R2 will add lidar, and Rivian's $49.99/month pricing undercuts Tesla's $99/month. Uber's $1.25B robotaxi partnership adds a monetization path. The theme is strengthening as software differentiation becomes a valuation driver for EV makers, but it is currently insufficient to override the leadership-transition overhang and the low-volume character of Rivian's tape.
Third-party head-to-head testing and Piper Sandler's upgrade of Rivian highlight the growing importance of in-house autonomy software for EV valuation, and the Uber robotaxi partnership gives the narrative a concrete commercial anchor — but the CFO transition and November 3 event cluster still dominate the tape.
Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter upgraded Rivian, favoring 'self-reliant' automakers building next-gen machines with in-house expertise
Uber's $1.25B robotaxi partnership with Rivian and planned R2 lidar integration with point-to-point driving expected later this year
Key Stats
23 metrics total
Market Cap
$23.21B
P/E (TTM)
0.0
Forward P/E
-9.0
Revenue Growth
27.2%
ROE
-57.5%
Beta
1.62
Full Metric Set
17 additional stats
Valuation Stack
Multiples and cash-flow framing.
Price / Sales
3.9
Price / Book
4.3
EV / EBITDA
-8.6
Quality & Balance Sheet
Margins, leverage, and liquidity.
Gross Margin
7.5%
Operating Margin
-50.4%
Debt / Equity
104.4
Current Ratio
2.10x
Quick Ratio
1.57x
Positioning & Range
Short interest and 52-week location.
Short % Float
14.1%
Short Ratio
6.97x
52W High
$22.69
52W Low
$12.39
From 52W High
-29.4%
From 52W Low
29.4%
Company Classification
Sector and industry context.
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Auto Manufacturers
Additional Signals
Free Cash Flow
$-1539374976.00
Detailed Analysis
Valuation
At $16.03, RIVN trades at 3.95x trailing sales, 4.28x book value, and 1.01x enterprise-value-to-market-cap, with a negative forward (-8.98x) and (-8.59x) reflecting continued losses (profit margin -54.95%). The prior fair-ratio framework pegged a reasonable near 2.3x versus an auto industry average of ~0.7x, so the multiple still embeds substantial R2-driven improvement — Zacks grades the stock F on valuation, explicitly flagging a premium to peers. The offset is a growth curve that is steepening: consensus now projects FY26 revenue of $7.29B (+35.3%) and FY27 revenue of $11.38B (+56.1%) with FY27 turning positive at +$1.74, which would make the current-year defensible if the ramp executes. The stock sits 29.4% below its 52-week high ($22.69) and 29.4% above its 52-week low ($12.39) at the 35.3rd percentile of its annual range — an improving but not yet cheap entry. The mean analyst target of $19.23 implies ~19.9% upside from $16.03, with the $13-$25 range capturing binary execution risk. There is no to compute because current-year earnings are negative; valuation remains a call option on R2 scale, and the September rally has modestly worsened entry math relative to the prior $14.30-14.90 zone.
Balance Sheet
Rivian holds $5.31B cash against $5.35B debt for essentially neutral net cash of -$43M (-0.19% of market cap). Debt-to-equity is 104.4% and cash-to-debt is 0.99, but current and quick ratios of 2.10x and 1.57x provide solid near-term liquidity. Operating cash flow of -$1.84B and FCF of -$1.54B mean the company burns cash at roughly $1.5B annually; the FCF yield is -6.63%. Existing liquidity plus VW and Uber capital commitments should fund operations into 2027, but any R2 ramp slippage or CFO-transition disruption re-activates dilution risk, and a capital raise at a transition-discounted valuation would be doubly punitive. The 10-year yield at 4.97% also raises the cost of any future debt issuance.
Growth
Revenue growth is 27.2% YoY with Q2 2026 revenue of $1.66B (+4.25% revenue surprise). Management raised FY26 delivery guidance to 65-70k vehicles with R2 deliveries underway since June, and Zacks consensus now projects FY of -$2.27 (+7.4% improvement) on $7.29B of revenue (+35.3% YoY), with FY27 estimates turning decisively positive: +$1.74 on $11.38B of revenue (+56.1% YoY) — the first positive full-year estimate in the dataset and a meaningful milestone in the loss-narrowing arc. The offset is near-term lumpiness: Q3 automotive gross margin is guided lower due to ~$100M of full-quarter R2 ramp costs, so the margin trajectory will be uneven even as the long-term direction improves.
Business Quality
TTM gross margin is 7.51%, operating margin is -50.42%, and margin is -46.13%, reflecting a business still in heavy investment mode. is -57.52% and is -14.37%. Liquidity ratios are healthy (current 2.10x, quick 1.57x). The first positive consolidated gross profit in Q2 (~$179M, 11% margin) is the first hard evidence that unit economics can work, and four consecutive quarterly beats suggest the cost reset has genuine traction — but the business does not yet support a premium multiple on current quality, and the premium rests entirely on forward execution, which is exactly what the CFO transition puts at question.
Capital Allocation
Cash of $5.31B versus debt of $5.35B leaves net cash of -$43M, and FCF burn of -$1.54B keeps capital raises a live possibility if execution slips. There is no dividend or buyback. Insider ownership of 34.54% aligns management with shareholders, and recent open-market purchases by the CEO (~$1.18M across two tranches: ~$991k and ~$188k) and CFO (~$278k) signal conviction — though the CFO's resignation days after her purchase complicates the signal, and the loss of the executive who led the IPO, the $13.7B raise, and the cost-management strategy raises questions about continuity of financial discipline during the R2 ramp.
Estimate Revisions
FY26 annual estimates remain firmly positive: 11 upward revisions in the last 30 days versus 1 downward (with 1 up in the last 7 days), and the 0y estimate improving from -$2.70 (90 days ago) to -$2.44; +1y improved from -$2.38 to -$2.17 with 9 up / 3 down over 30 days. However, near-quarter estimates have drifted lower: the 0q estimate sits at -$0.731 versus -$0.729 seven days ago (4 up / 5 down over 30 days, 1 down last week) and +1q drifted to -$0.666 from -$0.663 (4 up / 7 down over 30 days), consistent with the guided Q3 ramp-cost pressure. The Zacks Consensus has been unchanged over the last 30 days (Rank #3 Hold) — revision momentum has plateaued into the CFO transition, and the next weekly revision cycle plus any interim-CFO guidance resets are the key monitors.