Rivian closed September 11 at $16.03, essentially flat (-0.12%) but with an eventful session: the stock opened at $16.26, rallied to an intraday high of $16.81 — its highest print since mid-August and decisively through the ($16.12) — then faded all the way back to $16.03, closing above the ($16.00) for a fourth consecutive session. This is the third session in a row that price has pierced the intraday and closed below it, establishing a clear overhead rejection zone at $16.12-16.45 with a secondary supply shelf at $16.81. The momentum picture continued to improve: the histogram expanded for a fourth consecutive positive session (+0.001, +0.006, +0.012, +0.015), the line (-0.054) is closing on the signal line (-0.069), and held at 49.6 — but fell from 280.2M to 261.2M on the session, a warning that the intraday strength was sold into. The macro regime relaxed materially: dropped 11.2% to 15.84, the S&P (+0.86%), Nasdaq (+0.96%), and Dow (+0.98%) all rallied, though the 10-year yield ticked up to 4.97%, still a headwind for a name burning $1.54B of FCF annually. The fundamental thesis remains constructive and gained a new proof point: Zacks now projects FY27 of +$1.74 (the first positive full-year estimate in the dataset) on $11.38B of revenue (+56.1% YoY), alongside FY26 of -$2.27 and 35.3% revenue growth, with four consecutive trailing quarterly beats. The CFO transition (Claire McDonough to GE Vernova, effective October 30) remains the dominant overhang, and near-quarter estimates are drifting (0q 4 up / 5 down over 30 days). The overall rating moves to HOLD at 51 (from 48): the 1-month view stays HOLD — genuine momentum repair, but the rejection and fading on a strong market day demand confirmation — the 6-month view stays HOLD pending a volume-confirmed reclaim of $16.45, and the 1-year view stays BUY on intact annual revision momentum, the gross-profit and first-positive-FY27-estimate proof points, and R2 execution optionality. Key levels: $15.55 and $14.40 as downside tests, $16.12-16.45 as the confirmation trigger zone, $16.81 as secondary resistance.
投资判断
实时价格
$16.03
推荐分数
51%
51%
置信度
56%
56%
各期限展望
1个月
持有
短线
6个月
持有
中期
1年
买入
长期
核心催化
The September 11 session is the most market-moving development: the intraday push to $16.81 (highest since mid-August) proved buyers are willing to test the supply zone, but the complete fade back to $16.03 with negative shows sellers still own that zone — the tape has now defined its battlefield precisely at $16.12-16.81. A volume-confirmed close above $16.45 would reset the recovery; continued rejection keeps the September 8-11 sequence a low-conviction coil. The CFO resignation remains the dominant fundamental overhang, and the November 3 report (with Q3 ramp-cost disclosure from an interim-CFO-led finance organization) is the decisive confirmation event, with the newly positive FY27 estimate (+$1.74) raising the stakes for confirmation.
Reduce to 25-50% of normal satellite size (0.5-1% of portfolio) — the hold is genuine and the macro regime relaxed ( 15.84, broad rally), but the ($16.12) has rejected price three sessions running, September 11's fade from $16.81 came with falling on 0.89x average volume, and the 10-year at 4.97% still caps multiples for a 1.62-beta name with 14.1% short interest and ~45% realized volatility. Accumulate on a pullback into the $15.60-16.10 zone ( retest) OR add on a volume-confirmed close above $16.45 with follow-through through $16.81; trim into strength near $18.50-19.25. Do not chase intraday probes above the at full size until a daily close confirms.
投资逻辑快照
什么情况涨
The tape is doing exactly what a bottoming process looks like, and the backdrop just turned friendly: after the histogram hit its most negative reading since early August (-0.023 on September 4), price reclaimed the on September 8 (+2.7% to $16.17) and has held it for four sessions while the histogram expanded for four consecutive days (+0.001, +0.006, +0.012, +0.015). Simultaneously, collapsed 11.2% to 15.84 and all three major indices rallied 0.45-0.98% on September 11 — the first session in this window where the macro regime is no longer actively punishing a 1.62-beta name. September 11's push to $16.81, the highest print since mid-August, proves buyers are testing supply that was untouchable two weeks ago. The fundamental picture strengthened too: the Zacks FY27 estimate of +$1.74 on $11.38B of revenue (+56.1%) gives the loss-narrowing arc a concrete terminal point, four consecutive quarters beat on both and revenue, annual revision momentum is intact (FY26 from -$2.70 to -$2.44 over 90 days, 11 up / 1 down in 30 days, zero downgrades in 90 days and all recent actions PT raises), and the CEO's ~$1.18M of open-market buying plus institutional accumulation of a net ~75M shares in Q2 back the 1-year BUY thesis. If Q3 confirms R2 execution on November 3, the path to the $18.50-19.25 analyst zone reopens with ~18% upside from here and considerably more from a $15.60-16.10 entry.
什么情况跌
The recovery remains unproven where it matters, and September 11 added fresh evidence: the intraday run to $16.81 was fully sold, with the stock closing 4.6% off its high, falling ~19M shares, and volume at just 0.89x the 20-day average — while every genuine distribution day in this dataset (July 31, August 17, August 28) printed on 2-3x volume. This is now the third consecutive session of ($16.12) rejection, and the pattern eerily mirrors August 27-28, when a histogram peak at +0.153 preceded the August 28 breakdown. The - gap of ~$0.12 keeps a death cross a live risk on any stall. Near-quarter estimates continue to erode (0q 4 up / 5 down over 30 days, +1q 4 up / 7 down), the CFO who led the IPO, the $13.7B raise, and the cost reset leaves October 30 — three sessions before Q3 earnings that carry ~$100M of guided ramp costs — and 14.1% short interest with Morgan Stanley Underweight ($14, ~12.5% downside) reflects credible institutional skepticism. The 10-year yield rose to 4.97% even as stocks rallied, and at 3.95x sales with a Zacks valuation grade of F, valuation offers little cushion; a break of $15.55/$14.40 would target the $12.39 52-week low, a further ~23% drawdown.
A daily close below $13.85 — especially if accompanied by any negative R2 production commentary, a delayed permanent CFO successor announcement, or a guidance reset from the interim finance team — would invalidate the base structure and the R2 execution thesis, forcing an exit. On the flip side, a decisive loss of $15.55 on above-average volume before any reclaim of $16.45 would signal the September 8-11 repair has failed (the August 27-28 histogram-peak-then-breakdown sequence repeating) and re-arm the downside scenario. On the fundamental side, the first downward FY26 annual estimate revisions accumulating in the 30-day window (currently just 1 of 12) would signal the revision momentum has genuinely reversed.
CFO transition effective October 30, three sessions before Q3 earnings on November 3; a delayed permanent successor or interim-period guidance drift could compound uncertainty precisely when Q3 automotive gross margin is guided lower on ~$100M of R2 ramp costs
Three consecutive sessions of ($16.12) rejection with the September 11 fade from $16.81 occurring on falling and 0.89x average volume; a stall would compress the - gap (~$0.12) toward a death cross, and a break of $15.55/$14.40 re-opens the $12.39 52-week low, ~23% below current levels
Macro remains two-sided: fell 11.2% to 15.84 and equities rallied, but the 10-year yield rose to 4.97% — for a 1.62-beta name burning $1.54B of FCF annually with -$43M net cash and 14.1% short interest, rising rates keep dilution risk alive, and a capital raise at a transition-discounted valuation would be doubly punitive against ~45% realized volatility
接下来关注
下一次财报：2026年11月3日
The September 11 session is the most market-moving development: the intraday push to $16.81 (highest since mid-August) proved buyers are willing to test the supply zone, but the complete fade back to $16.03 with negative shows sellers still own that zone — the tape has now defined its battlefield precisely at $16.12-16.81. A volume-confirmed close above $16.45 would reset the recovery; continued rejection keeps the September 8-11 sequence a low-conviction coil. The CFO resignation remains the dominant fundamental overhang, and the November 3 report (with Q3 ramp-cost disclosure from an interim-CFO-led finance organization) is the decisive confirmation event, with the newly positive FY27 estimate (+$1.74) raising the stakes for confirmation.
信号仪表盘
决策输入
6 个信号
基本面
20.0%
距分析师均值目标空间
At $16.03, RIVN trades at 3.95x trailing sales, 4.28x book value, and 1.01x enterprise-value-to-market-cap, with a negative forward (-8.98x) and (-8.59x) reflecting continued losses (profit margin -54.95%). The prior fair-ratio framework pegged a reasonable near 2.3x versus an auto industry average of ~0.7x, so the multiple still embeds substantial R2-driven improvement — Zacks grades the stock F on valuation, explicitly flagging a premium to peers. The offset is a growth curve that is steepening: consensus now projects FY26 revenue of $7.29B (+35.3%) and FY27 revenue of $11.38B (+56.1%) with FY27 turning positive at +$1.74, which would make the current-year defensible if the ramp executes. The stock sits 29.4% below its 52-week high ($22.69) and 29.4% above its 52-week low ($12.39) at the 35.3rd percentile of its annual range — an improving but not yet cheap entry. The mean analyst target of $19.23 implies ~19.9% upside from $16.03, with the $13-$25 range capturing binary execution risk. There is no to compute because current-year earnings are negative; valuation remains a call option on R2 scale, and the September rally has modestly worsened entry math relative to the prior $14.30-14.90 zone.
技术面
Neutral
趋势质量
Price closed September 11 at $16.03, above the ($16.004) for the fourth consecutive session and above the ($15.97). The September 8 session (+2.7% to $16.17) reclaimed the / cluster, and this reclaim has now held through four sessions. However, the ($16.12) remains the last moving average overhead and has now rejected price three sessions running — September 10's high of $16.405 and September 11's high of $16.81 both saw price close back below $16.13, with September 11's fade from $16.81 to $16.03 (-4.6% off the high) establishing a second supply shelf near $16.81 (the mid-August rejection zone). The - gap has compressed to roughly $0.12, keeping a death cross a live risk if price stalls again, though the immediate path requires renewed weakness below $16.00. Structure is a basing/recovery attempt between $14.40 and $16.81 rather than an outright downtrend, with the upper half of that range now acting as a persistent absorption zone.
财报
52天
Turning Positive
Q2 2026: revenue of $1.66B grew 27.2% YoY (+4.25% revenue surprise), adjusted beat by 18.9%, and Rivian posted its first positive consolidated gross profit of ~$179M (11% margin); management raised FY26 delivery guidance to 65-70k but guided Q3 automotive gross profit lower due to R2 ramp costs.
新闻
Mixed-Bullish
新闻基调
The September 11 session is the most market-moving development: the intraday push to $16.81 (highest since mid-August) proved buyers are willing to test the supply zone, but the complete fade back to $16.03 with negative shows sellers still own that zone — the tape has now defined its battlefield precisely at $16.12-16.81. A volume-confirmed close above $16.45 would reset the recovery; continued rejection keeps the September 8-11 sequence a low-conviction coil. The CFO resignation remains the dominant fundamental overhang, and the November 3 report (with Q3 ramp-cost disclosure from an interim-CFO-led finance organization) is the decisive confirmation event, with the newly positive FY27 estimate (+$1.74) raising the stakes for confirmation.
宏观
Neutral
4.97% 10Y / 15.8 VIX
collapsing 11.2% to 15.84 and a broad equity rally (S&P +0.86%, Nasdaq +0.96%) remove the risk-off penalty that was strangling this 1.62-beta name, but the 10-year yield at 4.97% still compresses pre-profit growth multiples — a neutral tape that now permits, rather than punishes, multiple repair for RIVN if its own catalysts cooperate.
稳定性
High-Beta Growth
Satellite Upside
Rivian remains a pre-profit, high-beta (1.62) EV maker whose investment case rests on flawless R2 mass-market ramp execution and continued margin repair, complicated by a CFO transition effective October 30 that lands three sessions before Q3 earnings on November 3. The balance sheet is neutral at best ($5.31B cash vs $5.35B debt, -$43M net cash) with FCF burn of ~$1.54B annually, keeping dilution risk alive through the transition period. The tape continued to improve through September 11: price closed at $16.03, held above the ($16.00) for a fourth consecutive session, the histogram expanded for a fourth straight day (+0.015), and the macro regime relaxed sharply ( down 11.2% to 15.84 with all three major indices up 0.45-0.98%). However, the session's intraday fade from a $16.81 high back to $16.03 on sub-average volume (0.89x the 20-day average), with falling ~19M shares, shows the ($16.12) and mid-August supply are still rejecting buyers, so the stock belongs only in a strictly sized satellite growth sleeve pending November 3 confirmation.
分析师目标区间
均值目标
$19.23
高低目标
$13 / $25
分析师中值目标
$18.50
共识区间
$13 - $25
— 位分析师
Mean
$13$19$25
市场共识
The mean target is $19.23 (~19.9% upside from $16.03), the median is $18.50, and the $13-$25 range reflects high disagreement about R2 execution. The recommendations summary shows 5 strong-buy / 7 buy / 8 hold / 3 sell / 2 strong-sell, with the strong-buy count rising from 3 to 5 over three months and no upgrades or downgrades in the last 90 days — recent actions were all PT raises: RBC ($14 to $16), TD Cowen ($20 to $21), Wells Fargo ($15 to $16), Morgan Stanley ($13 to $14 but still Underweight), and Needham maintained $23. With the stock at $16.03, Morgan Stanley's target implies only ~12.5% downside, RBC's raised $16 target sits almost exactly at the current price, and the bull anchors ($21-$23) are ~31-43% above. The wide dispersion underscores that the outcome hinges on R2 execution and the CFO-transition resolution, with November 3 as the catalyst that should narrow the range.
筹码脉冲
内部人信号
Moderate Buy
净偏向
Buy-heavy
内部人持股
34.5%
机构持股
40.4%
解读
The CEO's continued open-market buying is the strongest confidence signal, and McDonough's own $278k purchase just before accepting an external CFO role argues against an information-driven exit; however, the loss of the CFO who led the cost-reset and $13.7B fundraising efforts tempers the read-through and adds transition risk through the October 30 handover.
重要活动
CEO Robert Scaringe reported purchases of 71,429 shares (~$991k) and another 71,429 shares (~$188k); CFO Claire McDonough reported a purchase of 18,501 shares (~$278k) — days before announcing her resignation effective October 30. Her destination, the GE Vernova CFO role, is a promotion-level career move, which supports the company's statement that the exit is personal and not disagreement-driven.
市场背景
行业
Auto Manufacturers
Mixed-Bullish
情绪
17
跟踪股票
4
分组
industry
Auto Manufacturers 行业 当前情绪为 Mixed-Bullish，板块平均评分约 48 分，资金与评分正在同步走强，且leadership is concentrated in TSLA, F, NIO。
Rivian's R2 platform is the critical catalyst for scaling from a premium niche EV maker to a mass-market player. Q2 2026 delivered the first positive consolidated gross profit, management raised FY26 delivery guidance to 65-70k vehicles with R2 deliveries underway since June, and the newly positive FY27 estimate of +$1.74 on $11.38B of revenue gives the ramp a quantified payoff. The September 8-11 tape (four-session hold, four-session expanding histogram) shows near-term technical conviction repairing, but the has rejected price three sessions running and fell on September 11's probe to $16.81, so the theme's near-term score remains below its structural fundamentals. The CFO handover on October 30 and the November 3 report raise the execution bar.
The four-session hold with an expanding histogram, the first positive FY27 estimate, and the September 11 supply test at $16.81 — all arriving just before the October 30 CFO handover and the Q3 ramp-cost quarter — mark the transition point where the market must choose between absorption-risk pricing and R2 expansion proof points.
11 upward FY26 revisions in the last 30 days versus 1 downward, plus the first positive FY27 estimate (+$1.74) on 56% revenue growth — structural support beneath the narrative
Four-session expanding histogram (+0.015 on September 11 from -0.023 on September 4) and a held reclaim — near-term capital is cautiously rotating back in, but on 0.80-0.89x average volume with declining on the latest supply test
EV Autonomy / ADAS
评分: 50
Mixed-Bullish
Rivian's Autonomy+ system is gaining credibility as a challenger to Tesla FSD, with third-party testing showing it surpasses GM Super Cruise and trails Tesla mainly on city streets and point-to-point driving. The upcoming R2 will add lidar, and Rivian's $49.99/month pricing undercuts Tesla's $99/month. Uber's $1.25B robotaxi partnership adds a monetization path. The theme is strengthening as software differentiation becomes a valuation driver for EV makers, but it is currently insufficient to override the leadership-transition overhang and the low-volume character of Rivian's tape.
Third-party head-to-head testing and Piper Sandler's upgrade of Rivian highlight the growing importance of in-house autonomy software for EV valuation, and the Uber robotaxi partnership gives the narrative a concrete commercial anchor — but the CFO transition and November 3 event cluster still dominate the tape.
Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter upgraded Rivian, favoring 'self-reliant' automakers building next-gen machines with in-house expertise
Uber's $1.25B robotaxi partnership with Rivian and planned R2 lidar integration with point-to-point driving expected later this year
关键指标
23 项指标
市值
$23.21B
市盈率 (TTM)
0.0
远期市盈率
-9.0
营收增速
27.2%
净资产收益率
-57.5%
Beta 系数
1.62
完整指标集
另外 17 项指标
估值结构
估值倍数与现金流框架。
市销率
3.9
市净率
4.3
企业价值 / EBITDA
-8.6
质量与资产负债表
利润率、杠杆与流动性。
毛利率
7.5%
营业利润率
-50.4%
资产负债率
104.4
流动比率
2.10x
速动比率
1.57x
仓位与价格区间
空头仓位与52周区间位置。
流通盘空头占比
14.1%
空头回补天数
6.97x
52周最高
$22.69
52周最低
$12.39
距52周高点
-29.4%
距52周低点
29.4%
公司分类
板块与行业背景。
板块
Consumer Cyclical
行业
Auto Manufacturers
其他信号
自由现金流
$-1539374976.00
详细分析
估值
At $16.03, RIVN trades at 3.95x trailing sales, 4.28x book value, and 1.01x enterprise-value-to-market-cap, with a negative forward (-8.98x) and (-8.59x) reflecting continued losses (profit margin -54.95%). The prior fair-ratio framework pegged a reasonable near 2.3x versus an auto industry average of ~0.7x, so the multiple still embeds substantial R2-driven improvement — Zacks grades the stock F on valuation, explicitly flagging a premium to peers. The offset is a growth curve that is steepening: consensus now projects FY26 revenue of $7.29B (+35.3%) and FY27 revenue of $11.38B (+56.1%) with FY27 turning positive at +$1.74, which would make the current-year defensible if the ramp executes. The stock sits 29.4% below its 52-week high ($22.69) and 29.4% above its 52-week low ($12.39) at the 35.3rd percentile of its annual range — an improving but not yet cheap entry. The mean analyst target of $19.23 implies ~19.9% upside from $16.03, with the $13-$25 range capturing binary execution risk. There is no to compute because current-year earnings are negative; valuation remains a call option on R2 scale, and the September rally has modestly worsened entry math relative to the prior $14.30-14.90 zone.
资产负债表
Rivian holds $5.31B cash against $5.35B debt for essentially neutral net cash of -$43M (-0.19% of market cap). Debt-to-equity is 104.4% and cash-to-debt is 0.99, but current and quick ratios of 2.10x and 1.57x provide solid near-term liquidity. Operating cash flow of -$1.84B and FCF of -$1.54B mean the company burns cash at roughly $1.5B annually; the FCF yield is -6.63%. Existing liquidity plus VW and Uber capital commitments should fund operations into 2027, but any R2 ramp slippage or CFO-transition disruption re-activates dilution risk, and a capital raise at a transition-discounted valuation would be doubly punitive. The 10-year yield at 4.97% also raises the cost of any future debt issuance.
增长
Revenue growth is 27.2% YoY with Q2 2026 revenue of $1.66B (+4.25% revenue surprise). Management raised FY26 delivery guidance to 65-70k vehicles with R2 deliveries underway since June, and Zacks consensus now projects FY of -$2.27 (+7.4% improvement) on $7.29B of revenue (+35.3% YoY), with FY27 estimates turning decisively positive: +$1.74 on $11.38B of revenue (+56.1% YoY) — the first positive full-year estimate in the dataset and a meaningful milestone in the loss-narrowing arc. The offset is near-term lumpiness: Q3 automotive gross margin is guided lower due to ~$100M of full-quarter R2 ramp costs, so the margin trajectory will be uneven even as the long-term direction improves.
生意质量
TTM gross margin is 7.51%, operating margin is -50.42%, and margin is -46.13%, reflecting a business still in heavy investment mode. is -57.52% and is -14.37%. Liquidity ratios are healthy (current 2.10x, quick 1.57x). The first positive consolidated gross profit in Q2 (~$179M, 11% margin) is the first hard evidence that unit economics can work, and four consecutive quarterly beats suggest the cost reset has genuine traction — but the business does not yet support a premium multiple on current quality, and the premium rests entirely on forward execution, which is exactly what the CFO transition puts at question.
资本配置
Cash of $5.31B versus debt of $5.35B leaves net cash of -$43M, and FCF burn of -$1.54B keeps capital raises a live possibility if execution slips. There is no dividend or buyback. Insider ownership of 34.54% aligns management with shareholders, and recent open-market purchases by the CEO (~$1.18M across two tranches: ~$991k and ~$188k) and CFO (~$278k) signal conviction — though the CFO's resignation days after her purchase complicates the signal, and the loss of the executive who led the IPO, the $13.7B raise, and the cost-management strategy raises questions about continuity of financial discipline during the R2 ramp.
预期修正
FY26 annual estimates remain firmly positive: 11 upward revisions in the last 30 days versus 1 downward (with 1 up in the last 7 days), and the 0y estimate improving from -$2.70 (90 days ago) to -$2.44; +1y improved from -$2.38 to -$2.17 with 9 up / 3 down over 30 days. However, near-quarter estimates have drifted lower: the 0q estimate sits at -$0.731 versus -$0.729 seven days ago (4 up / 5 down over 30 days, 1 down last week) and +1q drifted to -$0.666 from -$0.663 (4 up / 7 down over 30 days), consistent with the guided Q3 ramp-cost pressure. The Zacks Consensus has been unchanged over the last 30 days (Rank #3 Hold) — revision momentum has plateaued into the CFO transition, and the next weekly revision cycle plus any interim-CFO guidance resets are the key monitors.