Pinterest, Inc.

PINS

买入
2026年7月28日Neutral

决策摘要

Pinterest (PINS) closed at $24.36 on July 28, 2026, up 3.7% on the day and breaking above the July 15 high of $23.68. The at 18.21 and 10Y yield at 4.60% create a neutral market regime with growth-multiple headwinds, but PINS' low forward (10.9x) and strong FCF yield (7.9%) provide relative insulation. The stock has rallied 17% over the past month (1M return) and is now testing the 200-day ($24.58). Fundamentals remain compelling: forward of 0.39, revenue growth of 17.8% YoY, and a recent beat of 24.7% in Q1 2026 suggest an inflection. However, analyst estimates have seen minor downward revisions over the last 7 days, and the Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) warns of near-term underperformance. Insider selling continues without any open-market purchases, with the CFO selling $991k in the last month. Technically, the has crossed bullish and is at 66.2, but volume on the breakout was above average (13.9M vs 10.3M avg). The upcoming earnings on August 4, 2026 (6 days away) introduces binary event risk. The mean analyst target of $27.64 implies 13.5% upside, but the wide spread ($21-$42) reflects high uncertainty. The most critical risk is Reddit's ad share gains, which could pressure future growth. The overall recommendation is BUY based on deep value and positive estimate revisions over 90 days, but near-term risks suggest HOLD over a one-month horizon. A pullback to the $22.50-23.50 zone offers a better entry, and investors should consider reducing size ahead of earnings.

投资判断

实时价格

$24.36

推荐分数

70%
70%

置信度

65%
65%

各期限展望

1个月

持有

短线

6个月

买入

中期

1年

买入

长期

核心催化

Q2 earnings on August 4, 2026; a beat could trigger a rally toward the 200-day ($24.58) and beyond, while a miss could drive the stock back below $22.

稳定性分类High-Beta Growth组合角色Satellite Upside回撤风险High风险画像AggressiveDigital AdvertisingFCF YieldEarnings EventTechnical BounceInsider SellingContrarian ValueHigh VolatilityAI Cost SavingsBreakout Attempt
决策工作台

价格地图

60日设置

价格轨道

$24.36
止损
当前
$21
$23
$26
$29
止损位

$21.50

买入

$22.50 - $23.50

止盈

$24.58 - $27.64

风险/回报

2.7x

有吸引力

到止损下行

-11.7%

到止盈上行

+13.5%

仓位提示

Given at 18.21 and earnings event risk within 6 days, reduce position size to 50% of normal. Full position appropriate only after earnings confirm the positive trend or on a deeper pullback to $22.50-23.50.

投资逻辑快照

什么情况涨

PINS trades at a forward of 10.9x with FCF yield 7.9%, revenue growth 18%, and net cash. AI cost savings from DeepSeek could boost margins significantly. Earnings acceleration could trigger multiple expansion to 15x, implying ~50% upside from current levels.

什么情况跌

Reddit is capturing ad share, technicals are still in a long-term downtrend (below 200-day ), and insider selling persists. Zacks Rank #4 suggests near-term underperformance. The upcoming earnings could disappoint if Reddit headwinds materialize. Rising interest rates may further compress multiples.

A sustained break below $21.50 would confirm the bounce failure and invalidate the bullish thesis.

  • Reddit ad share gains accelerating (Jefferies evidence)
  • Fed rate hikes or rising yields compressing growth multiples
  • Q2 earnings miss or downbeat guidance due to competition
  • Further insider selling without open-market purchases

接下来关注

  • 下一次财报：2026年8月4日
  • Q2 earnings on August 4, 2026; a beat could trigger a rally toward the 200-day ($24.58) and beyond, while a miss could drive the stock back below $22.
信号仪表盘

决策输入

6 个信号

基本面

13.5%

距分析师均值目标空间

PINS trades at a forward of 10.9x, deeply discounted relative to historical averages and peers. The ratio of 0.39 signals undervaluation versus expected earnings growth (~20% in 2026). FCF yield of 7.9% is attractive, and of 37.5x is elevated due to low margins (7.98%), but on a cash flow basis the stock is cheap. of 3.12x is reasonable given 17.8% revenue growth. Overall, the stock appears significantly undervalued.

技术面

Bullish

趋势质量

Price ($24.36) is above the 50-day ($21.67) and 20-day ($22.63) and is testing the 200-day ($24.58). The death cross (50-day below 200-day) persists, indicating a long-term downtrend, but the gap is narrowing rapidly as rises and declines. A break above $24.58 would be a major bullish signal. Near-term trend is bullish as price broke above the July 15 high ($23.68) and is attempting to reclaim the 200-day .

财报

6天

Turning Positive

Q1 2026 (Mar 2026): of $0.27 beat consensus $0.216 by 24.7%. Revenue of $1.01B was above estimates and grew 17.8% YoY. The stock reacted positively post-earnings.

新闻

Mixed-Bullish

新闻基调

Q2 earnings on August 4, 2026; a beat could trigger a rally toward the 200-day ($24.58) and beyond, while a miss could drive the stock back below $22.

宏观

Neutral

4.60% 10Y / 18.2 VIX

at 18.21 is in the cautious range (15-20), and rising 10Y yields (4.60%) compress growth multiples. However, PINS' low forward (10.9x) and strong FCF yield provide relative insulation, allowing normal positioning with risk-aware sizing.

稳定性

High-Beta Growth

Satellite Upside

Pinterest combines high gross margins (~80%), positive free cash flow (7.9% FCF yield), and a net cash balance sheet, making it a structurally sound growth platform. However, the stock has high realized volatility (39% annualized), remains 39% below its 52-week high, and faces competitive pressure from Reddit. The recent bounce above the 50-day and bullish crossover suggest near-term momentum, but the stock is still below the 200-day and earnings event risk (Aug 4) introduces binary outcome. As a satellite position in an aggressive growth sleeve, investors should expect potential drawdowns of 20-30% in adverse scenarios. Valuation provides a margin of safety, but the long-term thesis depends on ad monetization improvements and successful AI cost savings.

分析师目标区间

均值目标

$27.64

高低目标

$21 / $42

分析师中值目标

$26.50

共识区间

$21 - $42

— 位分析师
Mean
$21$28$42

市场共识

Mean target of $27.64 implies 13.5% upside from $24.36. The wide spread between low ($21) and high ($42) reflects high uncertainty. Ratings: 2 Strong Buy, 17 Buy, 20 Hold. The consensus leans bullish but with significant dispersion, indicating a lack of strong conviction. Recent initiations and target bumps support the positive tilt.

筹码脉冲

内部人信号

Moderate Sell

净偏向

Sell-heavy

内部人持股

1.4%

机构持股

115.8%

解读

Insider selling continues without any open-market purchases, indicating limited management confidence in near-term upside.

重要活动

CFO Julia Brau Donnelly sold 30,280 shares worth $990,868. CEO William Ready exercised 189,036 shares (value not disclosed). No open-market purchases were reported in the last 20 filings.

市场背景

行业

Internet Content & Information

Mixed-Bearish

情绪

-15

跟踪股票

4

分组

industry

Internet Content & Information 行业 当前情绪为 Mixed-Bearish，板块平均评分约 50 分，资金偏好与评分正在走弱，且leadership is concentrated in GOOGL, META, NBIS。

轮动线索

  • Internet Content & Information 行业 组内平均推荐分数在回落，说明短线资金偏好正在减弱。
  • 当前组内偏多评级 2 只，偏空评级 0 只，可见情绪主导方向为 Mixed-Bearish。
  • 核心观察名单集中在 GOOGL、META、NBIS，这些股票更能代表板块资金风向。

重点龙头股

相关龙头股

  • GOOGL

    Alphabet Inc.

    Leader

    评分

    65

    价格

    $333.71

    市值

    $4.08T

  • META

    Meta Platforms, Inc.

    Leader

    评分

    35

    价格

    $593.41

    市值

    $1.51T

  • NBIS

    Nebius Group N.V.

    Key Peer

    评分

    30

    价格

    $169.69

    市值

    $43.08B

主题

Social Media Ad Market Share Shift

评分: -30

Mixed-Bearish

Reddit is increasingly capturing social media ad budgets due to its contextual targeting and high-intent audience. Jefferies reports that Pinterest, Snapchat, and X are losing share to Reddit. This theme is strengthening and poses a direct competitive threat to PINS's ad revenue growth.

Jefferies Q2 agency checks confirm Reddit's accelerating ad growth, diverting budgets away from peers like Pinterest.

  • Reddit's contextual targeting advantages
  • Advertiser shift to higher ROI platforms

AI Cost Savings for Digital Platforms

评分: 60

Bullish

The adoption of low-cost Chinese AI models (like DeepSeek) is enabling US platforms to drastically reduce AI inference costs. Pinterest is specifically mentioned as using these models, which could improve operating margins and free cash flow. This theme is nascent but has the potential to significantly boost profitability for ad platforms.

Bloomberg article on July 17 highlights Pinterest using DeepSeek models, projecting cost savings that could lift margins by hundreds of basis points.

  • Corporate cost optimization amid high interest rates
  • Increasing availability of low-cost open-source AI models
关键指标
23 项指标

市值

$13.65B

市盈率 (TTM)

50.8

远期市盈率

10.9

营收增速

17.8%

净资产收益率

8.9%

Beta 系数

0.89

完整指标集

另外 17 项指标

估值结构

估值倍数与现金流框架。

市销率

3.1

市净率

4.9

企业价值 / EBITDA

37.5

质量与资产负债表

利润率、杠杆与流动性。

毛利率

79.9%

营业利润率

-3.3%

资产负债率

42.3

流动比率

4.23x

速动比率

4.01x

仓位与价格区间

空头仓位与52周区间位置。

流通盘空头占比

15.9%

空头回补天数

3.73x

52周最高

$39.93

52周最低

$13.84

距52周高点

-39.0%

距52周低点

76.0%

公司分类

板块与行业背景。

板块

Communication Services

行业

Internet Content & Information

其他信号

自由现金流

$1080373120.00

详细分析
估值
PINS trades at a forward of 10.9x, deeply discounted relative to historical averages and peers. The ratio of 0.39 signals undervaluation versus expected earnings growth (~20% in 2026). FCF yield of 7.9% is attractive, and of 37.5x is elevated due to low margins (7.98%), but on a cash flow basis the stock is cheap. of 3.12x is reasonable given 17.8% revenue growth. Overall, the stock appears significantly undervalued.
资产负债表
PINS has a strong balance sheet with $1.30B cash and $1.21B debt, resulting in net cash of $93.5M (0.69% of market cap). ratio is 42.3%, moderate. Current ratio of 4.23 and quick ratio of 4.01 indicate ample liquidity. FCF generation of $1.08B provides a cushion. The balance sheet poses no risk.
增长
Revenue growth is solid at 17.8% YoY, driven by user engagement and ad load. estimates imply ~20% growth this year (to $1.90) and ~16% next year ($2.23). margin is positive at 7.98%, and operating margin is still negative at -3.29% but trending upward. The platform's shift to AI-driven ad tools (Performance+) and adoption of low-cost AI models (DeepSeek) support growth.

生意质量

Gross margins of 79.86% reflect the high-margin platform model. However, operating margin of -3.29% indicates heavy investment in sales, marketing, and technology. of 8.87% and of 4.06% are below average but expected to improve with operating leverage. The business benefits from a large user base and search-oriented nature, but faces intense competition from Reddit and other social platforms.

资本配置

PINS holds net cash and generates strong FCF, allowing for reinvestment in AI tools, international expansion, and potential M&A. A $3.5B share repurchase authorization has been approved, and the company has already retired ~9% of shares. This capital return program adds shareholder value, though insider selling offsets some confidence.

预期修正

estimates have been revised upward over the last 90 days (current year from $1.74 to $1.90, +9.3%), but in the last 7 days, there have been minor downward revisions (current year unchanged at $1.90179, but downgrade counts show 2 downward revisions for current year). The consensus for Q2 2026 is $0.3575, up 9.1% YoY, with a +1.6% revision over the last 30 days. Recent analyst actions include a Buy initiation from DA Davidson ($26 target) and a target raise from Wells Fargo to $30. The revisions signal remains cautiously positive but has softened recently.

营收增速

17.8%

实时动态与情绪

内部活动

  • ELLIS SABRINA

    Officer

    22,337

    $698k

  • WALCOTT WANJIKU JUANITA

    Officer

    11,767

    $371k

  • ACOSTA ANDREA

    Officer

    3,845

    $121k

  • RAJARAM GOKUL

    Director

    1,150

    $34k

新闻催化剂

2026年7月28日

Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold Reddit Stock Before Q2 Earnings Release?

RDDT Q2 earnings are likely to benefit from ad growth, AI partnerships, and user gains, but valuation, competition, and macro pressures might cloud the outlook.

2026年7月28日

Pinterest (PINS) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

Pinterest (PINS) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

2026年7月28日

Corning Beats Q2 Earnings Estimates on Optical and Solar Growth

GLW beats Q2 estimates as AI-driven optical demand and surging solar sales lifted revenues, margins and cash flow.

2026年7月25日

Is Pinterest (PINS) Undervalued As Q2 Earnings Put Ad Monetization In Focus?

Pinterest (PINS) is drawing fresh attention as investors look ahead to its second quarter earnings, with several research firms flagging questions around advertising monetization, the impact of AI, and the durability of its direct response ad business. See our latest analysis for Pinterest. At a share price of US$22.13, Pinterest has a 30 day share price return of 11.43% and a 90 day share price return of 11.09%. However, its 1 year total shareholder return is down 41.62% and the 5 year total...