On October 26 ORCL closed at $126.06, down 0.10% from $126.16, after printing a $123.75-$127.99 range and failing to clear the $128.33 October 23 high on 22.92 million shares, only 0.80x the 20-day average of 28.71 million and 0.76x the 60-day average of 29.99 million. The stock remains 6.64% below the $135.03 , 9.79% below the $139.74 and 21.97% below the $161.56 , with the 13.51% below the in an intact death-cross alignment; it sits 10.10% above the $114.50 52-week low and 56.08% below the $287.00 52-week high. Momentum is stabilizing but still unrepaired: is -4.49 against a -3.58 signal, though the histogram improved for a second session to -0.915 from -1.009 and -1.037 before that, (14) is essentially flat at 39.33 versus 39.41, and deteriorated again to -863.31 million from -840.39 million, meaning the flat tape still leaked shares. The regime is Neutral but improving at the margin: fell 5.45% to 18.39 from 19.45 while the S&P 500 rose 0.70%, the Nasdaq 0.82% and the Dow 0.28%, yet the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.986%, still punishing a high-beta, debt-funded capex story. The fundamental case remains real: 29.6% revenue growth, 54.5% earnings growth, 63.96% gross margin, 35.63% operating margin and $46.94 billion of operating cash flow. The counterweight is capital intensity: free cash flow of negative $45.85 billion, $169.14 billion of debt versus $37.08 billion of cash, $132.07 billion of net debt, 251.72% debt-to-equity, a negative 12.0% free-cash-flow yield and an implied capex and investment burden near $92.79 billion, putting gross leverage around 4.9x and net leverage near 3.8x. At $126.06 the stock trades at 19.76x trailing earnings, 15.49x the FY2027 estimate of $8.14069, 11.47x the FY2028 estimate of $10.98987, 15.07x and 5.32x sales, with a vendor of 0.707 and enterprise value at 1.36x market cap; it is inexpensive on forward earnings and expensive on current cash generation. Estimate momentum is split: FY2027 of $8.14069 is 1.11% above its 90-day level with 33 upward versus 2 downward revisions in the last week, but the next-quarter estimate of $2.02267 is 1.90% below its 60-day level of $2.06181 with 24 downward versus 5 upward revisions in the last week, and target compression continues with Goldman Sachs cutting to $206 from $240 on October 23 and Wells Fargo cutting to $250 from $280 on October 26. News flow is mixed-bearish and stale: the Fusion Claw and Nexus Case Flow/Nexus Reach launches drove a 4.2% single-day pop on September 29, but the supplied coverage also documents a force majeure notice to a Blue Owl Capital unit on the New Mexico Project Jupiter campus, roughly $18 billion of related debt trading at stressed levels, and permitting, environmental and local-opposition hurdles, against management's assurance that Jupiter remains on schedule and will not affect fiscal 2027 guidance. Five of six supplied quarters beat consensus by an average of about 10.7%, including a 10.45% beat in the August quarter, though slipped sequentially from $2.11 to $1.92 on normal fiscal-Q1 seasonality. The consensus mean target of $235.80 implies 87.1% upside and the $225 median implies 78.5%, but the $110-$400 spread and the newest $205-$250 targets show the mean is inflated by stale high estimates. Next earnings is December 14, 48 days out, so the one-month view is a technical and flow call, not an event trade. The conclusion is HOLD overall, HOLD for one and six months, and BUY for one year, with the decisive test whether capacity investment converts into free cash flow without another Project Jupiter financing or schedule setback.
投资判断
实时价格
$129.59
推荐分数
45%
45%
置信度
60%
60%
各期限展望
1个月
持有
短线
6个月
持有
中期
1年
买入
长期
核心催化
Project Jupiter financing and delivery remains the single most market-moving item: the force majeure notice to a Blue Owl unit, roughly $18 billion of stressed project debt and unresolved permitting and local-opposition risk raise the possibility that costs accrue before capacity revenue arrives. Management's on-schedule and fiscal 2027 guidance assurances are genuine counterevidence, but no milestone in the bundle resolves the question, so any further disclosure on construction timing, financing terms or power delivery could move the shares well beyond the current 5.07% daily .
Cap exposure at roughly 20-25% of a normal single-name risk budget: at 18.39 is only Neutral and cooling, but beta of 1.77, 20-day realized volatility of 53.41% and of 5.07% of price imply gap and slippage risk that overwhelms a standard stop framework. Require a higher low above $122.76 before adding, and scale only on a sustained reclaim of the $135.03 .
投资逻辑快照
什么情况涨
The strongest case for owning ORCL is that a durable, high-margin franchise is being priced as if the AI buildout destroys capital: 29.6% revenue growth, 54.5% earnings growth, 63.96% gross margin, 35.63% operating margin and $46.94 billion of operating cash flow at 11.47x the FY2028 estimate of $10.99 and 15.49x the FY2027 estimate of $8.14, with a vendor of 0.707. Five of six supplied quarters beat consensus by an average of about 10.7%, August-quarter grew 30.6% year over year, FY2027 and FY2028 estimates are still 1.11% and 0.92% above their 90-day levels with 33 upward versus 2 downward revisions to the current year in the last week, and the consensus mean target of $235.80 implies 87.1% upside. The tape improved at the margin on October 26: fell 5.45% to 18.39, the Nasdaq rose 0.82%, the histogram narrowed for a second straight session to -0.915, and the stock held above the $122.76 October 22 low. If Project Jupiter is delivered on schedule and fiscal 2027 guidance holds, the forward multiple makes the risk/reward asymmetric from here.
什么情况跌
The strongest case against is that Oracle is borrowing heavily to fund an asset base whose returns are unproven: free cash flow of negative $45.85 billion, net debt of $132.07 billion, debt-to-equity of 251.72%, cash at only 0.22x debt, and an implied $92.79 billion capex and investment burden that puts gross leverage near 4.9x and net leverage near 3.8x. The force majeure notice to a Blue Owl Capital unit, roughly $18 billion of stressed Project Jupiter debt, and permitting and local-opposition risk mean costs can run ahead of monetizable capacity, while the next-quarter estimate has already been cut 1.90% from its 60-day level with 24 downward revisions in the last week and two banks cut targets within four sessions, Goldman Sachs to $206 from $240 and Wells Fargo to $250 from $280. The 10-year yield at 4.986% raises both the discount rate and the refinancing cost on that debt. Technically the stock sits below the , and with a 13.51% -to- gap and at -4.49; October 26 failed at $127.99 and made a new low at -863.31 million on 0.80x average volume, which is the signature of a bear flag rather than a bottom. The short thesis is that Oracle's AI capacity arrives late and earns below its funding cost, turning a cheap forward multiple into a value trap; short interest of 2.60% of float with a 1.42 short ratio is modest and no history is supplied, so bearish positioning is not yet crowded. A volume-confirmed reclaim of the $139.74 would invalidate the bearish technical case.
A weekly close below the $114.50 52-week low on volume above the 20-day average of about 28.71 million shares would break the stabilization thesis and force a bearish re-rating of both the six-month and one-year views.
Funding and refinancing risk: $169.14 billion of debt against $37.08 billion of cash leaves $132.07 billion of net debt at 251.72% debt-to-equity, free cash flow is negative $45.85 billion for a -12.0% FCF yield, and roughly $18 billion of Project Jupiter-related debt is reportedly trading at stressed levels.
Estimate and target compression: the next-quarter estimate of $2.02267 is 1.90% below its 60-day level of $2.06181 with 24 downward versus 5 upward revisions in the last week, Goldman Sachs cut its target to $206 from $240 on October 23 and Wells Fargo cut to $250 from $280 on October 26.
Macro and volatility risk: the 10-year yield sits at 4.986%, at 18.39, beta at 1.77, 20-day realized volatility at 53.41% and at 5.07% of price; a renewed yield shock or broad technology selloff would compress the multiple and worsen funding conditions simultaneously.
接下来关注
下一次财报：2026年12月14日
Project Jupiter financing and delivery remains the single most market-moving item: the force majeure notice to a Blue Owl unit, roughly $18 billion of stressed project debt and unresolved permitting and local-opposition risk raise the possibility that costs accrue before capacity revenue arrives. Management's on-schedule and fiscal 2027 guidance assurances are genuine counterevidence, but no milestone in the bundle resolves the question, so any further disclosure on construction timing, financing terms or power delivery could move the shares well beyond the current 5.07% daily .
信号仪表盘
决策输入
6 个信号
基本面
87.1%
距分析师均值目标空间
At $126.06 Oracle trades at 19.76x trailing earnings, 15.49x the FY2027 estimate of $8.14069, 11.47x the FY2028 estimate of $10.98987, 15.07x , 5.32x sales and 6.17x book value, with the vendor at 0.707. Mechanically dividing the 11.47x forward multiple by the reported 54.5% earnings growth rate would imply roughly 0.21x, but that is not the horizon the vendor uses, so the very low mechanical ratio should not be treated as validated. Enterprise value of $518.92 billion is 1.36x the $382.15 billion market cap, the gap being $132.07 billion of net debt, so the equity is a leveraged claim on the buildout rather than a clean software multiple. Forward earnings multiples look cheap against 29.6% revenue growth, but the negative 12.0% free-cash-flow yield means the stock is not cheap on cash, and no same-date peer or historical multiple series is supplied to establish a verifiable sector discount. The honest read is inexpensive on forward earnings, expensive on current cash generation, and entirely dependent on whether roughly $92.79 billion of implied capex and investment earns a return above its funding cost.
技术面
Bearish
趋势质量
At $126.06 price sits 6.64% below the at $135.03, 9.79% below the at $139.74 and 21.97% below the at $161.56. All three averages are declining, the is 13.51% below the , and the death-cross alignment is firmly established with the still under the . The October 22 session broke the former $127.36 swing support and printed a $122.76 low; October 23 closed at $126.16 and October 26 closed at $126.06 after failing at $127.99, so the sequence reads as a downtrend with a three-session pause rather than a base. Reclaiming $128.33 and then the $135.03 would be the first evidence of structure repair.
财报
48天
Improving
The August 2026 quarter delivered of $1.92 versus $1.73834 consensus, a 10.45% beat and about 30.6% above the $1.47 reported in the August 2025 quarter, so year-over-year growth accelerated from the roughly 24.1% pace set in the May 2026 quarter even though sequential fell about 9.0% from $2.11 to $1.92 on normal fiscal-Q1 seasonality; only six quarters are supplied and the post-report share-price reaction is not in the bundle.
新闻
Mixed-Bearish
新闻基调
Project Jupiter financing and delivery remains the single most market-moving item: the force majeure notice to a Blue Owl unit, roughly $18 billion of stressed project debt and unresolved permitting and local-opposition risk raise the possibility that costs accrue before capacity revenue arrives. Management's on-schedule and fiscal 2027 guidance assurances are genuine counterevidence, but no milestone in the bundle resolves the question, so any further disclosure on construction timing, financing terms or power delivery could move the shares well beyond the current 5.07% daily .
宏观
Neutral
4.99% 10Y / 18.4 VIX
at 18.39 sits in the upper half of the neutral band and fell 5.45% on October 26, which mildly helps high-beta names, but a 4.986% 10-year yield keeps the discount rate and refinancing cost elevated exactly when Oracle's free cash flow is negative $45.85 billion.
稳定性
High-Beta Growth
Satellite Upside
Oracle still owns a deeply embedded enterprise database and Fusion applications franchise producing 63.96% gross margin, 35.63% operating margin, 47.97% margin and $46.94 billion of operating cash flow on 29.6% revenue growth, so the business is not binary. What disqualifies it from a core compounder bucket is the financing structure: free cash flow of negative $45.85 billion, $169.14 billion of debt against $37.08 billion of cash, $132.07 billion of net debt, 251.72% debt-to-equity and an implied $92.79 billion capex and investment burden while Project Jupiter delivery and funding remain unresolved. of 1.77, 20-day realized volatility of 53.41% and at 5.07% of price mean gap risk and stop slippage are structural, not incidental. That combination belongs in a Satellite Upside sleeve sized well below a core position until AI capacity demonstrably converts into free cash flow.
分析师目标区间
均值目标
$235.80
高低目标
$110 / $400
分析师中值目标
$225.00
共识区间
$110 - $400
— 位分析师
Mean
$110$236$400
市场共识
The $235.80 mean target implies about 87.1% upside from $126.06 and the $225 median implies about 78.5%, but the $110 low target sits 12.7% below spot while the $400 high implies roughly 217% upside, a $290 spread that signals deep disagreement about AI investment returns and terminal value. The analyst count is not supplied, so the mean is not a reliable near-term objective. Critically, the newest target actions, Wells Fargo at $250, Goldman Sachs at $206 and Freedom Broker at $205, all sit below the mean and two of them near spot, implying the headline average is inflated by stale high targets. Consensus direction is nominally positive, but dispersion and the direction of the freshest revisions argue against treating 87% upside as a base case.
筹码脉冲
内部人信号
Neutral
净偏向
Sell-heavy
内部人持股
38.4%
机构持股
43.4%
解读
With no reported purchases and two dispositions of roughly the same share block, the tape leans mildly cautious, but the broken transaction metadata and the 38.39% insider ownership stake make this far too thin a sample to read as broad management pessimism.
重要活动
The feed contains two apparent disposition entries for officer Edward Lloyd Screven, each covering 37,221 shares, reported at approximately $5.22 million and $1.51 million for a combined value of about $6.72 million. The date fields are malformed ('99' and '98'), transaction codes are missing, and the feed does not distinguish open-market sales from pre-scheduled 10b5-1 dispositions.
市场背景
行业
Software - Infrastructure
Mixed-Bullish
情绪
20
跟踪股票
10
分组
industry
Software - Infrastructure 行业 当前情绪为 Mixed-Bullish，板块平均评分约 54 分，资金与评分正在同步走强，且leadership is concentrated in MSFT, PLTR, PANW。
AI capacity demand remains structurally strong, and Fusion Claw plus the Nexus launches extend Oracle's AI story from raw infrastructure into higher-margin enterprise applications, evidenced by the 4.2% positive reaction on September 29. The market is nevertheless discriminating between AI platforms that self-fund and those that must borrow, and the Project Jupiter delay coverage plus the 56.08% distance from the 52-week high show Oracle currently sits on the wrong side of that discrimination. The theme is intact but flow within it has rotated toward cash-generative AI franchises.
Oracle closed at $126.06 after failing at $127.99 and holding above the October 22 low of $122.76 on 0.80x average volume, while the Project Jupiter force majeure and stressed-debt reports remain unresolved and earnings are 48 days away.
Supplied coverage frames NVIDIA as generating substantial data-center AI cash on a $5.49 trillion market cap and Broadcom as pairing semiconductors with recurring, high-margin infrastructure software at a $1.67 trillion market cap, while Oracle carries negative $45.85 billion of free cash flow and $132.07 billion of net debt.
Oracle's application-layer monetization through Fusion Claw and Nexus supports the long-term theme, but the stock's 56.08% drawdown from its 52-week high and the failure to reclaim $128.33 show investors are not yet paying for that optionality.
AI Funding and Capital-Intensity Risk
评分: -50
Bearish
The AI buildout has become a balance-sheet story as much as a demand story, and Oracle is the clearest example of the funding-constrained variant: $169.14 billion of debt against $37.08 billion of cash, negative $45.85 billion of free cash flow and an implied $92.79 billion capex and investment burden. The reported stress in roughly $18 billion of Project Jupiter-related debt and the force majeure notice raise the risk that expenses precede revenue. Management's schedule and fiscal 2027 assurances are real counterevidence; no current peer balance sheets or fund-flow series are supplied, so the rotation claim is a relative-quality narrative rather than a measured flow.
The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.986%, the next-quarter estimate is 1.90% below its 60-day level with 24 downward revisions in the last week, and both Wells Fargo ($280 to $250 on October 26) and Goldman Sachs ($240 to $206 on October 23) cut targets within four sessions.
Oracle's 0.22x cash-to-debt ratio and negative 12.0% free-cash-flow yield make the equity increasingly sensitive to refinancing conditions with the ten-year at 4.986%.
Supplied coverage highlights the unresolved balance between AI infrastructure demand and the funding required to build it as Oracle's swing factor, which is exactly the axis along which capital is rotating toward self-funding platforms.
关键指标
23 项指标
市值
$382.15B
市盈率 (TTM)
19.8
远期市盈率
11.5
营收增速
29.6%
净资产收益率
41.2%
Beta 系数
1.77
完整指标集
另外 17 项指标
估值结构
估值倍数与现金流框架。
市销率
5.3
市净率
6.2
企业价值 / EBITDA
15.1
质量与资产负债表
利润率、杠杆与流动性。
毛利率
64.0%
营业利润率
35.6%
资产负债率
251.7
流动比率
1.17x
速动比率
1.02x
仓位与价格区间
空头仓位与52周区间位置。
流通盘空头占比
2.6%
空头回补天数
1.42x
52周最高
$287.00
52周最低
$114.50
距52周高点
-56.1%
距52周低点
10.1%
公司分类
板块与行业背景。
板块
Technology
行业
Software - Infrastructure
其他信号
自由现金流
$-45853626368.00
详细分析
估值
At $126.06 Oracle trades at 19.76x trailing earnings, 15.49x the FY2027 estimate of $8.14069, 11.47x the FY2028 estimate of $10.98987, 15.07x , 5.32x sales and 6.17x book value, with the vendor at 0.707. Mechanically dividing the 11.47x forward multiple by the reported 54.5% earnings growth rate would imply roughly 0.21x, but that is not the horizon the vendor uses, so the very low mechanical ratio should not be treated as validated. Enterprise value of $518.92 billion is 1.36x the $382.15 billion market cap, the gap being $132.07 billion of net debt, so the equity is a leveraged claim on the buildout rather than a clean software multiple. Forward earnings multiples look cheap against 29.6% revenue growth, but the negative 12.0% free-cash-flow yield means the stock is not cheap on cash, and no same-date peer or historical multiple series is supplied to establish a verifiable sector discount. The honest read is inexpensive on forward earnings, expensive on current cash generation, and entirely dependent on whether roughly $92.79 billion of implied capex and investment earns a return above its funding cost.
资产负债表
Debt-to-equity of 251.72%, or about 2.52x, is high for a software-led technology company. Total debt of $169.14 billion against $37.08 billion of cash leaves $132.07 billion of net debt; cash covers only 0.22x debt and operating cash flow covers 0.28x. Current and quick ratios of 1.17 and 1.02 indicate adequate but not abundant near-term liquidity. Using implied of roughly $34.43 billion from the $518.92 billion enterprise value at 15.07x, gross leverage is about 4.9x and net leverage about 3.8x, elevated for the sector and rising while free cash flow is negative $45.85 billion. of 41.19% is strong but leverage-amplified; of 6.36% is the more honest measure of returns on the enlarged asset base.
增长
Reported revenue growth of 29.6% and earnings growth of 54.5% remain strong, driven by cloud infrastructure and subscription applications. FY2027 of $8.14069 is 1.11% above the $8.05139 level 90 days ago and FY2028 of $10.98987 is 0.92% above $10.89015, so the annual trajectory is intact. The near-term cadence is weaker: the current-quarter estimate of $1.89333 is only marginally above $1.88765 from 90 days ago, and the next-quarter estimate of $2.02267 is 1.90% below $2.06181 from 60 days ago with 24 downward versus 5 upward revisions in the last week. No quarterly margin time series is supplied, so margin expansion or compression cannot be independently confirmed; the reported 63.96% gross and 35.63% operating margins are the only margin anchors available.
生意质量
Oracle competes in Technology / Software - Infrastructure with an entrenched enterprise database, cloud infrastructure and subscription applications franchise that produces high switching costs and recurring revenue. Gross margin of 63.96%, operating margin of 35.63%, margin of 47.97% and profit margin of 26.36% support a premium multiple for the core software business. of 6.36% is the counterpoint: the consolidated asset base is expanding faster than returns, so the blended business currently looks more capital-intensive than a pure software franchise. Current and quick ratios of 1.17 and 1.02 are adequate. Insider ownership of 38.39% aligns a large stake with outcomes but concentrates control, while institutional ownership is 43.38%. Business quality supports a premium for the database and application layers; it does not eliminate execution and cash-conversion risk on the infrastructure layer.
资本配置
Operating cash flow of $46.94 billion against free cash flow of negative $45.85 billion implies roughly $92.79 billion of capex and investment burden on the supplied figures, one of the largest capital programs in enterprise technology. The 1.59% dividend yield and 31.35% payout ratio look modest against earnings but are not covered by current free cash flow, so the dividend competes directly with the buildout for capital. Approximately 3.0315 billion shares are outstanding against a 1.8592 billion float, and no share-count history or repurchase data is supplied, so dilution and buyback trends cannot be assessed. Value creation now hinges on whether the capacity being funded earns returns above its cost of capital; reported stress in roughly $18 billion of Project Jupiter-related debt makes that the single most important capital-allocation test for shareholders.
预期修正
Revision data are bifurcated and the split matters. Full-year numbers are still moving up: FY2027 of $8.14069 versus $8.05139 ninety days ago with 33 upward and 2 downward revisions in the last week, and FY2028 of $10.98987 versus $10.89015 with 21 upward and 11 downward. The forward quarter is moving the other way: $2.02267 versus $2.06181 sixty days ago with 24 downward versus 5 upward revisions in the last week, consistent with a timing shift out of the near term rather than a cut to the full-year outlook. Sell-side posture is stable but targets keep compressing: Wells Fargo lowered its target to $250 from $280 on October 26 while keeping Overweight, Goldman Sachs cut to $206 from $240 on October 23 while keeping Buy, Freedom Broker cut to $205 from $210 on September 14, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Overweight with $284 on October 22 and Citizens reiterated Market Outperform with $285 on October 2. No formal upgrades or downgrades appear in the last 90 days, and the tally of 7 Strong Buy, 28 Buy, 7 Hold and 1 Sell is unchanged from one month ago but slightly weaker than the 8/29/6/1 mix from three months ago.