Eli Lilly and Company

LLY

买入

2026年7月28日Neutral

决策摘要

Eli Lilly closed at $1,220.66 on July 28, 2026, up 1.9% from the prior session and 2.3% below the 52-week high of $1,249.45. The macroeconomic backdrop is neutral with at 18.21 and the 10-year yield at 4.60%. Fundamentally, the company remains a GLP-1 powerhouse with 55.5% revenue growth and 170% earnings growth, trading at a forward of 27.1x ( 1.67) that remains attractive relative to growth. However, current quarter estimates have been sharply reduced from $8.09 to $6.55 over 90 days, signaling near-term headwinds likely from competitive pressure and conservative guidance. On the positive side, recent retatrutide Phase 3 data showed 22.6% weight loss and the company plans to file for approval in early 2027, extending the pipeline runway. Multiple analyst target increases (Citigroup to $1,600, UBS to $1,425, Bernstein to $1,385) underpin bullish sentiment for 2027+. Technically, the stock is above ($1,134) and ($1,006) with at 61.3 and histogram improving from -10.1 to -0.95, signaling fading bearish momentum. Volume was above average on July 28, confirming buying interest. The next earnings release on August 5, 2026, is 7 days away and represents a high-impact catalytic event; estimate cuts raise the bar for a beat, but management has a history of conservative guidance. Additionally, Novo Nordisk's lawsuit over GLP-1 advertising adds legal uncertainty. The long-term thesis remains intact on strong fundamentals and pipeline depth, but near-term estimate revisions, legal risk, and event risk warrant patience. The overall rating is BUY with a 1-month HOLD given the event risk and mixed technicals.

投资判断

实时价格

$1220.66

推荐分数

56%

置信度

50%

各期限展望

1个月

持有

短线

6个月

买入

中期

1年

买入

长期

核心催化

The next earnings release on August 5, 2026, will likely be the highest-impact catalyst, providing updates on Zepbound/Mounjaro sales, Foundayo trends, and pipeline progress. The recent estimate cuts increase the probability of a negative surprise, but the stock could rally if results beat significantly.

稳定性分类Balanced Growth组合角色Core Growth回撤风险Medium风险画像ModerateGLP-1 LeaderEarnings ApproachingEstimate RevisionsLegal RiskHigh ROETechnical Bounce

决策工作台

价格地图

60日设置

价格轨道

$1220.66

止损

当前

$1093

$1241

$1389

$1537

止损位

$1130.00

买入

$1160.00 - $1180.00

止盈

$1300.00 - $1500.00

风险/回报

2.7x

有吸引力

到止损下行

-7.4%

到止盈上行

+22.9%

仓位提示

Reduce to 70% of normal Core Growth position (2-3% of portfolio) due to upcoming earnings (7 days) and recent estimate cuts. The stock has bounced off support and is showing positive technical momentum, but event risk remains elevated. A pullback to $1,160-$1,180 would provide a better risk-reward entry.

投资逻辑快照

什么情况涨

LLY is a premier growth compounder with 170% earnings growth, 107% , and a dominant position in the multi-billion dollar GLP-1 market. The pipeline in Alzheimer's, oncology, and now gene editing diversifies risk. Retatrutide's positive Phase 3 data and planned 2027 filing extend the growth runway. Analyst targets up to $1,600 imply 31% upside from current levels. The technical setup is improving with convergence and rising . The recent pullback offered a better entry point, and valuation ( 1.67) is reasonable for the growth rate. The Novo lawsuit may be resolved with limited impact.

什么情况跌

Current quarter estimates have been slashed by over 19% in 90 days, suggesting that competitive pressure from Novo's oral Wegovy or slowing Zepbound sales momentum could lead to a significant Q2 miss. The technical setup, while improving, is still fragile with negative until a cross. Foundayo's slow launch raises concerns about LLY's oral GLP-1 competitiveness, potentially allowing Novo to capture more market share. The Novo lawsuit could force LLY to alter advertising, weakening its marketing edge. Drug pricing regulation in Europe and potential US reforms could compress margins. The elevated and rising 10Y yield also pressure growth multiples.

A daily close below ($1,134) after a confirmed breakdown would break the intermediate trend and signal a deeper correction. Additionally, a Q2 earnings miss with lower guidance would fundamentally invalidate the near-term thesis.

US drug pricing negotiation (IRA) expanding to GLP-1 medications
Manufacturing capacity constraints limiting Zepbound supply
Competitive advances: Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide maintaining market dominance
Significant Q2 earnings miss due to Foundayo weakness or inventory destocking
Novo Nordisk lawsuit outcome forcing marketing changes or financial penalties

接下来关注

下一次财报：2026年8月5日
The next earnings release on August 5, 2026, will likely be the highest-impact catalyst, providing updates on Zepbound/Mounjaro sales, Foundayo trends, and pipeline progress. The recent estimate cuts increase the probability of a negative surprise, but the stock could rally if results beat significantly.

信号仪表盘

决策输入

6 个信号

基本面

4.6%

距分析师均值目标空间

LLY trades at a forward of 27.1x, which is attractive given 170% earnings growth, yielding a of 1.67. of 15.1x is elevated but justified by 82.8% gross margins and accelerating revenue growth. of 30.5x reflects the growth premium. FCF yield is low at 0.84%, but FCF is growing rapidly. Overall, the stock is fairly valued on a growth-adjusted basis and offers reasonable upside, especially with recent analyst target increases.

技术面

Bullish

趋势质量

Price ($1,221) is 21.4% above ($1,006) and 7.6% above ($1,134), confirming a bullish long-term trend. The / relationship remains golden (crossed in Jan 2024) and widening. The stock pulled back from the July 7 high of $1,249 to $1,141 in mid-July but has since rebounded, currently trading just above ($1,189). Overall trend structure is bullish with a short-term consolidation resolving higher.

财报

7天

Decelerating

Q1 2026 of $8.55 beat consensus of $6.79 by 25.9%, driven by Zepbound margin expansion and volume surprise. Shares rallied on the beat.

新闻

Mixed-Bullish

新闻基调

宏观

Neutral

4.60% 10Y / 18.2 VIX

Elevated 10-year yield at 4.60% continues to pressure growth multiples, but LLY's strong earnings trajectory (170% growth) and defensive growth profile partly insulate it. at 18.21 signals a cautious environment suitable for standard position sizing.

稳定性

Balanced Growth

Core Growth

Eli Lilly's industry-leading profitability (82.8% gross margin, 107% ) and robust revenue growth (55.5%) driven by its GLP-1 franchise justify its premium valuation. The balance sheet is leveraged ( 139%) but operating cash flow of $20.5B provides adequate coverage. Valuation is reasonable with a forward of 27.1x and of 1.67. The stock is best held as a Core Growth name in a diversified portfolio, expecting drawdowns of 10-15% during corrections. Thesis durability remains high given pipeline depth and market leadership, though near-term estimate revisions, legal challenges, and event risk warrant patience.

分析师目标区间

均值目标

$1276.96

高低目标

$850 / $1600

分析师中值目标

$1300.00

共识区间

$850 - $1600

— 位分析师

Mean

$850$1277$1600

市场共识

The mean target of $1,277 implies 4.6% upside from current price of $1,221. The range is wide ($850-$1,600), but recent upward revisions (Citigroup to $1,600, UBS to $1,425) signal strong buy-side conviction. The consensus is heavily bullish with 22 buy/strong buy ratings out of 29, 5 holds, and 2 sells.

筹码脉冲

内部人信号

Neutral

净偏向

No recent activity

内部人持股

0.2%

机构持股

85.1%

解读

The lack of any significant insider transactions provides no strong signal; insider activity is neutral.

重要活动

Only small director stock awards (6, 1000, 18 shares) in the last 3 months, no open-market purchases or sales by executives.

市场背景

行业

Drug Manufacturers - General

Mixed-Bullish

情绪

跟踪股票

分组

industry

Drug Manufacturers - General 行业当前情绪为 Mixed-Bullish，板块平均评分约 64 分，整体偏稳，且leadership is concentrated in JNJ, ABBV, NVO。

轮动线索

Drug Manufacturers - General 行业组内评分变化不大，当前更像是存量博弈。
当前组内偏多评级 4 只，偏空评级 0 只，可见情绪主导方向为 Mixed-Bullish。
核心观察名单集中在 JNJ、ABBV、NVO，这些股票更能代表板块资金风向。

重点龙头股

GLP-1 Secular Growth

评分: 45

Mixed-Bullish

The GLP-1 market for obesity and diabetes continues to expand, with projections exceeding $120B by 2035. LLY leads with Zepbound and injectables, but the oral pill Foundayo is off to a slower start than expected, trailing Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill significantly in both the US (11% vs 89% prescriptions) and Europe. The theme remains structurally bullish, but near-term competitive dynamics are shifting with Novo's lawsuit challenging LLY's advertising. LLY's long-term pipeline (retatrutide, eloralintide) and manufacturing scale provide a durable edge.

Recent IQVIA data shows Wegovy pill with 89% US market share vs Foundayo's 11%, and Novo's lawsuit over misleading ads adds near-term legal overhang.

Rapid class adoption with Zepbound/Mounjaro sales accelerating
Positive Phase 3 data for next-generation drugs (retatrutide, eloralintide)

关键指标

23 项指标

市值

$1.09T

市盈率 (TTM)

43.4

远期市盈率

27.1

营收增速

55.5%

净资产收益率

107.5%

Beta 系数

0.51

完整指标集

另外 17 项指标

估值结构

估值倍数与现金流框架。

市销率

15.1

市净率

35.0

企业价值 / EBITDA

30.5

质量与资产负债表

利润率、杠杆与流动性。

毛利率

82.8%

营业利润率

49.4%

资产负债率

139.0

流动比率

1.50x

速动比率

0.72x

仓位与价格区间

空头仓位与52周区间位置。

流通盘空头占比

1.2%

空头回补天数

3.34x

52周最高

$1249.45

52周最低

$623.78

距52周高点

-2.3%

距52周低点

95.7%

公司分类

板块与行业背景。

板块

Healthcare

行业

Drug Manufacturers - General

其他信号

自由现金流

$9156599808.00

详细分析

估值

资产负债表

Debt-to-equity of 139% is high, but total debt of $43.4B is covered by operating cash flow of $20.5B (0.47x coverage). Cash of $5.3B provides limited liquidity. The net debt position of $38.1B is manageable given cash generation. of 107% is exceptional, though partly leveraged.

增长

Revenue growth of 55.5% and earnings growth of 170% are accelerating, driven by Zepbound/Mounjaro expansion and a strong pipeline. Next-generation GLP-1s (Retatrutide, Eloralintide) and the Alzheimer's program add growth vectors. However, current quarter estimates have been revised down sharply (-19% in 90 days), likely reflecting conservative guidance or competitive pressure from Novo's oral Wegovy pill. Long-term estimates for next year have been revised upward.

生意质量

Gross margins of 82.8%, operating margins of 49.4%, and margins of 50.1% are industry-leading. of 20.7% and of 107% reflect exceptional capital efficiency and competitive moat. Institutional ownership at 85.1% underscores quality perception.

资本配置

Management prioritizes R&D and manufacturing expansion. Recent backing of Scribe Therapeutics shows strategic investing. Share count is stable, dividends modest. Overall allocation is constructive.

预期修正

Mixed but with significant near-term negativity. Current quarter was revised down sharply from $8.09 to $6.55 over 90 days, and from $6.79 to $6.55 in the last 7 days, indicating a negative shift in near-term expectations. However, next year estimates saw upward revisions (+7% in 90 days). Recent analyst target increases from multiple firms (Citigroup, Bernstein, UBS, BofA) support the bullish outlook for 2027+.

营收增速

55.5%

实时动态与情绪

内部活动

HEDLEY MARY LYNNE
Director
12
$10k
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
6
$5k
LUCIANO JUAN R
Director
19
$15k
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
220,000
$204.3M

新闻催化剂

2026年7月28日

INCY Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat on Higher Sales, '26 View Raised

Incyte tops Q2 earnings and revenue estimates as Jakafi and Opzelura sales surged, prompting the company to raise its 2026 revenue outlook.

2026年7月28日

Here's How LLY's Non-GLP-1 Portfolio Is Poised Ahead of Q2 Earnings

Eli Lilly's expanding oncology and newer medicine portfolio is set to play a pivotal role in its Q2 earnings alongside its blockbuster GLP-1 franchise.

2026年7月27日

3 Quality Compounders to Own for Decades

A quality compounder is a business that not only sports durable competitive advantages but also builds on its success by consistently reinvesting its profits at high returns.

2026年7月27日

UnitedHealth Pulls Back Post 52-Week High: Healthcare ETFs to Watch

UNH's post-earnings pullback follows a 52-week high, as stronger guidance offsets Medicaid pressures and spotlights healthcare ETFs with sizable exposure.

LLY

价格地图

Drug Manufacturers - General

相关龙头股

GLP-1 Secular Growth