LLY closed at $1,279.14 on October 26, up 0.45% from $1,273.46, a quiet stabilization session after the October 23 bearish outside reversal that had undone the October 22 breakout to a fresh 52-week high of $1,321.21. The session compressed rather than extended: the high-low range narrowed to $23.17, or 1.81% of price, versus 3.53% on October 22 and 3.95% on October 23, and volume of 2.10 million shares ran 0.91x the 20-day average of 2.32 million, so neither buyers nor sellers committed. The long-term trend remains intact - price is 5.74% above the at $1,209.66, 7.05% above the at $1,194.88 and 16.39% above the rising at $1,099.05, with the 8.72% above the - but short-term thrust keeps fading: the histogram contracted for a third consecutive session to 9.36 from 11.09, 13.20 and 12.13, while (14) held at 63.05 and rebounded to 54.21 million from 52.11 million, a mild re-accumulation offset. Macro improved modestly: fell 5.45% to 18.39 from 19.45 and the 10-year Treasury yield was essentially unchanged at 4.986%, yet LLY's +0.45% trailed the S&P 500's +0.70% and the Nasdaq's +0.82%, a second straight session of relative softness consistent with pre-event de-risking rather than fundamental selling. Fundamentals are unchanged and elite: 47.7% revenue growth, 26.2% earnings growth, 83.4% gross margin, 54.22% operating margin, 20.36% , $28.08 billion of operating cash flow and $11.07 billion of free cash flow. Valuation still offers almost no cushion at 26.99x forward earnings, 28.32x , 14.32x sales and a 0.97% free-cash-flow yield, with the forward earnings yield of roughly 3.70% sitting about 128 basis points below the 4.986% risk-free rate. The estimate tape remains split: the current-quarter consensus fell again to $6.606 from $7.108 seven days ago and $9.948 thirty days ago (-33.6%), and FY26 slipped to $34.458 (-1.26% week over week, -6.66% over thirty days), but FY27 rose to $47.388 and now implies roughly 37.5% growth over FY26, with seven upward versus five downward revisions over thirty days. Sell-side posture is stable and constructive: 26 of 31 ratings are Buy or Strong Buy, the mean target ticked up to $1,333.72 (+4.27% implied) and the median to $1,400.00 (+9.45%), with Leerink the latest to raise on October 21. Critically, the supplied event_calendar for this run returns a null next_earnings_date, null days_to_next_earnings and an empty recent_earnings_dates list, so the late-October report date used in the prior analysis cannot be independently confirmed here and must be treated as an unresolved data gap. Net: BUY overall and on the six- and twelve-month horizons on franchise quality and out-year earnings power, but HOLD for the next month - the chart has stabilized but not repaired itself, the near-term earnings bar keeps moving and the date of the next hard catalyst is unknown.
投资判断
实时价格
$1279.14
推荐分数
72%
72%
置信度
62%
62%
各期限展望
1个月
持有
短线
6个月
买入
中期
1年
买入
长期
核心催化
The next quarterly earnings report is the single highest-impact item, but this run's bundle does not date it: event_calendar reports next_earnings_date null, days_to_next_earnings null and an empty recent_earnings_dates list, whereas the prior run carried October 29 with five days to go. Treating the prior date as still live, the report would land within days and represent the first hard commercial read on the oral GLP-1 narrative since the September 29 EASD data, arriving after the current-quarter consensus was cut 33.60% over thirty days and a further 7.06% in the past week. With the shares 3.18% below a fresh 52-week high and only 4.27% below the mean analyst target, guidance quality on that call - not the four-week-old clinical headlines and not the three-session technical stall - will set the near-term path; an in-line quarter with ordinary guidance could produce a 5-8% air pocket toward the $1,240 breakout base, while a beat with raised guidance reopens the $1,400-$1,440 target band.
Hold roughly 40%-50% of a normal Core Growth weight while the next earnings date is unconfirmed. The October 26 session - a narrow 1.81% range, a 0.91x volume ratio versus the 20-day average of 2.32 million, a lower high at $1,296.90 and no reclaim of the $1,307.92 October 23 high - is a stall, not a repair, and it follows a bearish outside reversal that undercut the October 20 breakout low. (14) of $37.17 (2.91% of price) and 30.23% 20-day realized volatility mean 3-4% single-session gaps are routine, as the 3.53% and 3.95% ranges on October 22-23 demonstrated. Scale in on a retracement into the $1,240-$1,268 breakout-retest band, or add after the event if guidance validates the FY27 $47.39 estimate.
投资逻辑快照
什么情况涨
The strongest case for owning Lilly is that the two-session reversal has reset an overbought tape and restored an entry discount without breaking a single long-term trend anchor, and the October 26 session confirmed the sellers did not follow through. Price at $1,279.14 is still 5.74% above the at $1,209.66, 7.05% above the at $1,194.88 and 16.39% above the rising at $1,099.05, the is 8.72% above the with no crossover risk, the line is still rising at 31.45 versus a 22.09 signal, at 63.05 has unwound from 70.74 without going oversold, the October 23 drawdown was more than two-thirds recovered (54.21 million versus 52.11 million), and the daily range compressed to 1.81% from 3.95% - a textbook coiling rather than a breakdown. The implied-upside cushion is 4.27% to the $1,333.72 mean target and 9.45% to the $1,400.00 median, both of which ticked up this run while price rose less than the market. That tape sits on a franchise compounding faster than almost any mega-cap: revenue +47.7%, earnings +26.2%, gross margin 83.4%, operating margin 54.22%, 20.36%, operating cash flow $28.08 billion, and five of six populated quarters beating consensus by an average of roughly 14.8% including a 27.27% beat last quarter. The out-year earnings power that matters most for a one-year view is now being revised upward - FY27 consensus rose to $47.388 from $47.210 in a week and from $45.106 ninety days ago (+5.06%), implying roughly 37.5% growth over FY26, with seven upward versus five downward revisions over thirty days - while the current-quarter bar has just been cut 33.60% over thirty days to $6.606, precisely the setup a management team with a five-of-six beat record exploits. The sell side is still raising targets (Leerink to $1,316 on October 21, JPMorgan and RBC at $1,500, Cantor at $1,440, Morgan Stanley at $1,430) with 26 of 31 ratings at Buy or Strong Buy, an improved mix versus 25 of 30 a month ago, and zero downgrades in 90 days, so a beat with raised guidance reopens the $1,400-$1,440 band that four major firms published this month.
什么情况跌
The strongest argument against owning LLY here is that the tape has now failed twice without a fundamental excuse and is running out of new information to support it. It made a fresh 52-week high at $1,321.21 on October 22, gave back 2.55% the very next session while undercutting the October 20 breakout low intraday at $1,257.62, and then on October 26 - with down 5.45% to 18.39 and the S&P 500 up 0.70% - could only manage +0.45% and a lower high of $1,296.90. A stock that lags a broad risk-on tape by 25 basis points with no company news, after four weeks of no fresh catalyst (the last supplied articles are both dated September 29), is being sold into strength, and the histogram has now contracted three sessions in a row to 9.36 from 13.20. The out-year numbers supporting the bull case are improving, but the near-term ones keep deteriorating: current-quarter consensus fell to $6.606 from $7.108 in a week and $9.948 a month ago (-33.60%), FY26 fell to $34.458 (-6.66% over thirty days), and zero upward versus seven downward revisions were logged in the last seven days for both the current quarter and current year. Something is pressuring near-term numbers that this bundle does not explain, the quarterly-to-annual reconciliation is still broken ($16.93 of H1 actuals plus $6.606 and $10.169 sums to $33.70 against a $34.458 FY26 consensus, with an unexplained 53.9% sequential step-up into Q4), and the next earnings date is not even confirmed in this run's event_calendar - so an investor is holding event risk without knowing when it lands. Valuation offers no protection: 26.99x forward earnings, 28.32x , 14.32x sales and a 0.97% free-cash-flow yield against a 10-year yield of 4.986%, with the forward earnings yield 128 basis points below the risk-free rate and a low analyst target of $930 implying -27.30%. With short interest at just 0.79% of float there is no squeeze fuel, and the franchise is concentrated in Mounjaro and Zepbound (an estimated roughly 65% of revenue per the earlier company profile) against Novo Nordisk and new entrants, with efficacy edges that were cross-study rather than head-to-head and have now fully faded from the price. A single in-line quarter with unremarkable guidance could produce a 5-8% air pocket toward the $1,240 breakout base and then the at $1,209.66, and a 2.91% means that move could happen in one session.
A daily close below $1,240.34 - the October 19 gap-support close - on volume at or above the 2.32 million 20-day average would confirm the October 22 breakout as a failed spike and negate the structural improvement in the tape, particularly after the October 23 reversal already undercut the $1,260.17 breakout low intraday and the October 26 session failed to reclaim $1,307.92. A subsequent close below the rising at $1,209.66 would put the at $1,194.88, the October 13 low of $1,158.41 and the October 8 low of $1,131.21 in play, at which point the one-month and six-month theses are wrong and the position should be exited rather than averaged down. A secondary confirmation would be the histogram rolling through zero, marking the October 9 bullish crossover as failed on the momentum side as well.
Event risk is immediate but undated: this run's event_calendar returns a null next_earnings_date and null days_to_next_earnings, whereas the prior run carried October 29. The stock enters that window at 91.78% of its 52-week range, up 8.08% in a month and 3.18% below its high, after a -2.55% reversal. A miss, a soft guide, or even an in-line quarter without upside guidance could trigger a 5-10% single-session decline given (14) of $37.17 (2.91% of price) and 20-day realized volatility of 30.23%.
Technical deterioration risk is elevated: the October 23 session was a bearish outside day with a $50.30 (3.95%) range that took out both the $1,260.17 and $1,261.08 October 20-21 lows, and the October 26 bounce produced a lower high at $1,296.90 on 0.91x average volume. The histogram contracted for a third straight session to 9.36 from 13.20. A close below $1,240.34 would confirm failure.
Valuation and rate risk remain material: at $1,279.14 the forward earnings yield is roughly 3.70% against a 4.986% 10-year Treasury yield (-128 basis points) and the free-cash-flow yield is 0.97%, so the 26.99x forward and 14.32x sales multiples have almost no valuation floor. A move back toward 5.20%-5.40% on the long end could compress the multiple 8-12% independent of operating results.
Estimate-revision risk persists on the near term: current-quarter consensus fell to $6.606 from $7.108 seven days ago (-7.06%) and $9.948 thirty days ago (-33.60%), FY26 fell to $34.458 (-1.26% week over week, -6.66% over thirty days), and zero upward versus seven downward revisions were logged in the last seven days for both the current quarter and current year. The quarterly estimates and the FY26 total still do not reconcile ($33.70 versus $34.458), so the true bar is unknown.
Concentration and competitive risk: the earlier supplied company profile estimates roughly 65% of revenue from Mounjaro and Zepbound, exposing results to Novo Nordisk's oral and higher-dose programs, additional entrants, payer formulary restrictions and realized net pricing that has historically eroded in obesity and diabetes categories; the September efficacy comparisons were cross-study, not head-to-head, and the market has now fully faded that news.
Balance-sheet and capital-intensity risk: net debt of $45.96 billion against $8.95 billion of cash (0.16x cash-to-debt), a 0.68 quick ratio and a roughly $17.02 billion gap between $28.08 billion of operating cash flow and $11.07 billion of free cash flow leave the manufacturing build-out dependent on sustained operating execution; any growth shortfall would be magnified by that investment burden.
接下来关注
The next quarterly earnings report is the single highest-impact item, but this run's bundle does not date it: event_calendar reports next_earnings_date null, days_to_next_earnings null and an empty recent_earnings_dates list, whereas the prior run carried October 29 with five days to go. Treating the prior date as still live, the report would land within days and represent the first hard commercial read on the oral GLP-1 narrative since the September 29 EASD data, arriving after the current-quarter consensus was cut 33.60% over thirty days and a further 7.06% in the past week. With the shares 3.18% below a fresh 52-week high and only 4.27% below the mean analyst target, guidance quality on that call - not the four-week-old clinical headlines and not the three-session technical stall - will set the near-term path; an in-line quarter with ordinary guidance could produce a 5-8% air pocket toward the $1,240 breakout base, while a beat with raised guidance reopens the $1,400-$1,440 target band.
信号仪表盘
决策输入
6 个信号
基本面
4.3%
距分析师均值目标空间
At $1,279.14, LLY trades at 42.94x trailing earnings, 26.99x forward earnings, 28.32x on a $1.1811 trillion enterprise value, 14.32x sales, 33.66x book value and a $1.1407 trillion market capitalization. The 1.232 is defensible for a company compounding revenue at 47.7% and earnings at 26.2%, but absolute valuation still offers almost no cushion: the forward earnings yield of roughly 3.70% sits about 128 basis points below the 4.986% 10-year Treasury yield, and the free-cash-flow yield is just 0.97% ($11.07 billion of free cash flow on a $1.1407 trillion market cap). The 14.32x sales multiple is underwritten entirely by the 47.7% revenue growth rate; if that decelerates, the multiple has nothing to lean on. Measured against the sell side, the stock has moved back to a modest discount: implied upside is 4.27% to the $1,333.72 mean target and 9.45% to the $1,400.00 median, with the $1,600 high target implying +25.08% and the $930 low target implying -27.30%. The mean and median both ticked up in this run (from $1,331.55 and $1,398.50), but the realistic ceiling remains the $1,430-$1,500 October cluster from Morgan Stanley, Cantor Fitzgerald, JPMorgan and RBC rather than the $1,600 high. No peer or historical multiple series is supplied, so relative cheapness cannot be established from this bundle. Note that eased to 28.32x from 29.03x purely because the enterprise-value proxy moved while did not, another reminder of how little valuation slack exists.
技术面
Bullish
趋势质量
The October 26 close of $1,279.14 is 5.74% above the at $1,209.66, 7.05% above the at $1,194.88 and 16.39% above the rising at $1,099.05, with the 8.72% above the - a firmly bullish long-term alignment with no crossover risk anywhere nearby. But the short-term structure remains damaged from the October 23 bearish outside reversal: after the October 22 breakout to a new 52-week high of $1,321.21, the stock fell 2.55% and traded down to $1,257.62, undercutting both the October 20 breakout low of $1,260.17 and the October 21 low of $1,261.08. October 26 stabilized the tape with a higher low at $1,273.73 and a close above the prior close, but it failed to reclaim the October 23 high of $1,307.92 and printed a lower high at $1,296.90, so the pattern is now an inside/narrow-range pause below resistance rather than a confirmed repair. The October 19 close of $1,240.34 remains unfilled gap support beneath, the October 13 low of $1,158.41 is 9.43% below the market, and the shares sit 57.99% above the $809.63 52-week low with the 52-week range position at 91.78%.
财报
待确认
Steady
Q2 2026 of $8.38 beat the $6.584 consensus by 27.27%, the fifth beat in six populated quarters, though actual eased roughly 2% sequentially from Q1's $8.55 and the bundle does not provide an attributable post-report share-price reaction. Labeling the trend Steady rather than Improving or Decelerating is a deliberate net judgment: reported is still growing strongly year over year ($8.38 versus $6.31 in Q2 2025, +32.8%), FY27 consensus of $47.388 is up 5.06% over 90 days, and the average surprise across the six populated quarters is roughly 14.8%, while the near-term bar has been cut far harder - current-quarter consensus has fallen to $6.606 from $7.108 (-7.06%) in seven days and now sits 33.60% below the $9.948 thirty-day level, FY26 fell to $34.458 from $34.896, and zero upward versus seven downward revisions were logged in seven days for both the current quarter and current year. Two internal inconsistencies still deserve flagging before the next print: $16.93 of H1 actuals plus the $6.606 Q3 and $10.169 Q4 estimates sum to $33.70 against the $34.458 FY26 consensus, and the quarterly series now implies an even less plausible roughly 53.9% sequential step-up into Q4. Those gaps mean the near-term bar should be treated as approximate rather than precise - it could mean the cut is an artifact that sets up another large beat, or that the consensus series is stale and the true bar is higher than it appears. Note also that this run's event_calendar contains no confirmed next earnings date, so the timing of this quarter's report cannot be verified from the bundle.
新闻
Mixed-Bullish
新闻基调
The next quarterly earnings report is the single highest-impact item, but this run's bundle does not date it: event_calendar reports next_earnings_date null, days_to_next_earnings null and an empty recent_earnings_dates list, whereas the prior run carried October 29 with five days to go. Treating the prior date as still live, the report would land within days and represent the first hard commercial read on the oral GLP-1 narrative since the September 29 EASD data, arriving after the current-quarter consensus was cut 33.60% over thirty days and a further 7.06% in the past week. With the shares 3.18% below a fresh 52-week high and only 4.27% below the mean analyst target, guidance quality on that call - not the four-week-old clinical headlines and not the three-session technical stall - will set the near-term path; an in-line quarter with ordinary guidance could produce a 5-8% air pocket toward the $1,240 breakout base, while a beat with raised guidance reopens the $1,400-$1,440 target band.
宏观
Neutral
4.99% 10Y / 18.4 VIX
fell 5.45% to 18.39, still inside the Neutral 15-20 band, and the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.986%, which removes the prior session's rate headwind but leaves the discount rate just under 5% - a level at which LLY's 26.99x forward multiple still gets no help from the risk-free rate, as shown by LLY's +0.45% lagging a +0.70% S&P 500 on October 26.
稳定性
Balanced Growth
Core Growth
Eli Lilly combines top-decile pharmaceutical economics - 47.7% revenue growth, 83.4% gross margin, 54.22% operating margin, 20.36% return on assets, $28.08 billion of operating cash flow and $11.07 billion of free cash flow - with a 0.453 beta and 85.36% institutional ownership, which earns it a Core Growth role rather than a defensive anchor or a tactical trade. It is not a Defensive Compounder because the franchise is concentrated in Mounjaro and Zepbound and results hinge on payer access, competitor efficacy, supply execution and realized net pricing. The dominant downside channel is valuation fragility: 26.99x forward earnings, 28.32x , 14.32x sales and a 0.97% free-cash-flow yield, with the forward earnings yield of roughly 3.70% sitting about 128 basis points below the 4.986% 10-year Treasury yield. Drawdown risk is Medium rather than Low because (14) at $37.17 is 2.91% of price and 20-day realized volatility is 30.23%, so 2-4% single-session moves are routine - the October 23 session alone ranged 3.95% and the October 22 session 3.53% - and a 5-10% gap around the upcoming quarterly print is plausible. Thesis durability is Medium because FY27 consensus of $47.388 has resumed rising (+0.38% week over week, +5.06% over 90 days) even as the current-quarter estimate has been cut 33.6% in thirty days, and only the next earnings report can resolve which signal is real.
分析师目标区间
均值目标
$1333.72
高低目标
$930 / $1600
分析师中值目标
$1400.00
共识区间
$930 - $1600
— 位分析师
Mean
$930$1334$1600
市场共识
The $1,333.72 mean target implies 4.27% upside from $1,279.14 and the $1,400.00 median implies 9.45%, so after the October 22 breakout, the October 23 reversal and the October 26 stabilization the stock trades at a modest discount to the consensus mean rather than at a premium - a thin but better cushion than at the October 22 high. The $930 low (-27.30%) and $1,600 high (+25.08%) span more than 52 percentage points, a very wide disagreement band for a mega-cap that reflects unresolved debate over GLP-1 growth duration, competitive economics and multiple sustainability. The mean and median both moved up marginally in this run (+$2.17 and +$1.50) while price also moved up, so implied upside held roughly steady at 4.27% and 9.45%; the Leerink nudge of $7 on October 21 remains the only recent substantive revision, which means target revisions, not price, must do the work from here. The recommendation mix of six Strong Buy, 20 Buy, three Hold, one Sell and one Strong Sell is 83.9% bullish (26 of 31) and improved from 25 of 30 a month ago, though number_of_analysts is null in the bundle and the two bearish ratings remain unchanged. Net: the sell side is directionally positive and offers modest valuation support, but the combination of a 4.27% mean-target cushion and a 32-34% current-quarter estimate cut does not justify adding aggressively before the next print.
筹码脉冲
内部人信号
Neutral
净偏向
Balanced
内部人持股
0.2%
机构持股
85.4%
解读
There is no verifiable directional insider signal: the two disclosed positions total roughly $1.28 million against a $1.1407 trillion market cap, direction and plan status are missing, and the Balanced classification reflects indeterminate evidence rather than a genuine mix of buys and sells.
重要活动
Only two Form-4 records are supplied. Officer Daniel Skovronsky is listed with 1,000 directly owned shares valued at $634,405 and officer Jacob S. Van Naarden with 1,000 directly owned shares valued at $647,360. Both records have a blank transaction_type field and opaque numeric date strings ('149' and '148'), so it is impossible to determine whether these were open-market purchases, sales, option exercises or automatic 10b5-1 dispositions, or when they occurred.
市场背景
行业
Drug Manufacturers - General
Mixed-Bullish
情绪
24
跟踪股票
5
分组
industry
Drug Manufacturers - General 行业 当前情绪为 Mixed-Bullish，板块平均评分约 60 分，资金与评分正在同步走强，且leadership is concentrated in JNJ, ABBV, AMGN。
轮动线索
Drug Manufacturers - General 行业 组内平均推荐分数正在上修，说明资金偏好有扩散迹象。
GLP-1 and obesity medicines remain Lilly's dominant growth narrative and the primary driver of capital attention in large-cap healthcare, and Lilly is the theme's clearest leader with 47.7% revenue growth and 54.22% operating margins. The September 29 EASD presentations showed 17.2 mg Foundayo delivering 1.5 percentage points more weight loss and 0.3 points more A1C reduction than 25 mg oral semaglutide at week 52, alongside an indirect analysis showing Zepbound 15 mg with 4.5 percentage points more weight loss than high-dose Wegovy over 72 weeks and a threefold greater likelihood of achieving 20% weight loss, while Novo Nordisk shares fell about 1.3% in premarket trading on the same news. Both comparisons are cross-study rather than head-to-head, and the market has now fully faded the data: the stock is 3.18% below the October 22 high and has gone four weeks without a follow-through news item, which tempers the theme's near-term price expression even as the fundamental franchise remains intact. The theme is intact on fundamentals but is currently in a pre-earnings de-risking phase, with the next real catalyst the next commercial update, whose date this bundle does not confirm.
The next quarterly report - undated in this bundle but carried as October 29 in the prior run - is the first hard commercial test of the oral GLP-1 narrative since the EASD data, arriving after a 33.60% thirty-day cut to the current-quarter consensus reset the bar.
Foundayo's reported 1.5 percentage-point weight-loss and 0.3 percentage-point A1C advantage versus oral semaglutide, plus higher-dose Zepbound's lead over Wegovy HD and a threefold greater likelihood of achieving 20% weight loss, keep efficacy and formulation differentiation the central competitive axis in obesity medicine.
Sell-side targets cluster at $1,430-$1,500 (Morgan Stanley, Cantor Fitzgerald, JPMorgan, RBC) with 26 of 31 ratings at Buy or Strong Buy, the mix improved from 25 of 30 a month ago and 22 of 28 three months ago, and Leerink raised to $1,316 on October 21, showing the analyst community is still marking the franchise up rather than down.
Rate-Sensitive Long-Duration Quality Growth
评分: -5
Neutral
The cross-asset signal improved modestly on October 26 relative to October 23: fell 5.45% to 18.39 from 19.45 and the 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.986% versus 4.988%, with the S&P 500 +0.70% and the Nasdaq +0.82% - a tape that no longer actively penalizes long-duration quality growth. Lilly nonetheless rose only 0.45%, lagging the S&P 500 by roughly 25 basis points after lagging by about two percentage points on October 23, so the relative-softness pattern has now repeated for two consecutive sessions even without a rate shock. With a 0.453 beta and a 3.70% forward earnings yield still 128 basis points below the risk-free rate, Lilly remains a discount-rate story as much as a drug story; the long end sitting just under 5% caps multiple expansion at 26.99x forward even as the equity tape firms. The theme is neutral rather than bearish - the macro headwind stopped worsening, but LLY's failure to participate in a broad rally suggests idiosyncratic pre-event de-risking is currently the dominant marginal force.
's decline to 18.39 and a flat 4.986% 10-year yield removed the immediate rate headwind, yet LLY's +0.45% still trailed a +0.70% S&P 500, a clean test showing the stock is now trading on its own event calendar rather than on the macro tape.
The 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.986% versus 4.988% while fell to 18.39 from 19.45 and the S&P 500 rose 0.70%, so the discount-rate pressure that produced the October 23 underperformance has paused but not reversed.
LLY lagged the S&P 500 by roughly 25 basis points with no company-specific news in the bundle, following a roughly two-point lag on October 23, evidence that capital is trimming the position into an unconfirmed catalyst rather than rotating out of quality growth broadly.
关键指标
23 项指标
市值
$1.14T
市盈率 (TTM)
42.9
远期市盈率
27.0
营收增速
47.7%
净资产收益率
102.3%
Beta 系数
0.45
完整指标集
另外 17 项指标
估值结构
估值倍数与现金流框架。
市销率
14.3
市净率
33.7
企业价值 / EBITDA
28.3
质量与资产负债表
利润率、杠杆与流动性。
毛利率
83.4%
营业利润率
54.2%
资产负债率
162.1
流动比率
1.36x
速动比率
0.68x
仓位与价格区间
空头仓位与52周区间位置。
流通盘空头占比
0.8%
空头回补天数
3.01x
52周最高
$1321.21
52周最低
$809.63
距52周高点
-3.2%
距52周低点
58.0%
公司分类
板块与行业背景。
板块
Healthcare
行业
Drug Manufacturers - General
其他信号
自由现金流
$11065900032.00
详细分析
估值
At $1,279.14, LLY trades at 42.94x trailing earnings, 26.99x forward earnings, 28.32x on a $1.1811 trillion enterprise value, 14.32x sales, 33.66x book value and a $1.1407 trillion market capitalization. The 1.232 is defensible for a company compounding revenue at 47.7% and earnings at 26.2%, but absolute valuation still offers almost no cushion: the forward earnings yield of roughly 3.70% sits about 128 basis points below the 4.986% 10-year Treasury yield, and the free-cash-flow yield is just 0.97% ($11.07 billion of free cash flow on a $1.1407 trillion market cap). The 14.32x sales multiple is underwritten entirely by the 47.7% revenue growth rate; if that decelerates, the multiple has nothing to lean on. Measured against the sell side, the stock has moved back to a modest discount: implied upside is 4.27% to the $1,333.72 mean target and 9.45% to the $1,400.00 median, with the $1,600 high target implying +25.08% and the $930 low target implying -27.30%. The mean and median both ticked up in this run (from $1,331.55 and $1,398.50), but the realistic ceiling remains the $1,430-$1,500 October cluster from Morgan Stanley, Cantor Fitzgerald, JPMorgan and RBC rather than the $1,600 high. No peer or historical multiple series is supplied, so relative cheapness cannot be established from this bundle. Note that eased to 28.32x from 29.03x purely because the enterprise-value proxy moved while did not, another reminder of how little valuation slack exists.
资产负债表
Debt-to-equity of 162.07% is moderate-to-elevated, with $54.91 billion of total debt against $8.95 billion of cash, producing net debt of roughly $45.96 billion, or 4.03% of market capitalization. Operating cash flow of $28.08 billion covers only about 0.51x total debt, and free cash flow of $11.07 billion is roughly 39% of operating cash flow, implying a $17.02 billion investment and other cash burden the bundle does not decompose. The current ratio of 1.36 is adequate, but the 0.68 quick ratio and 0.16x cash-to-debt ratio leave thin immediate liquidity relative to liabilities. Return on equity of 102.29% is exceptional but flattered by leverage; return on assets of 20.36% is the cleaner measure and is genuinely high. Solvency is not the risk here - the risk is that heavy capital intensity keeps free cash flow low relative to a 28.32x multiple, leaving no cash-flow valuation floor.
增长
Revenue growth of 47.7% year over year and earnings growth of 26.2% remain exceptional at Lilly's scale, and the out-year story has actually strengthened in this run: FY27 consensus rose to $47.388 from $47.210 a week ago and $45.106 ninety days ago (+5.06%), now implying roughly 37.5% growth over the FY26 figure of $34.458. The near-term path remains the problem. Current-quarter consensus is $6.606 versus $7.108 seven days ago (-7.06%) and $9.948 thirty days ago (-33.60%) and $9.468 ninety days ago (-30.23%), with zero upward and seven downward revisions in the last seven days for the current quarter. FY26 is $34.458 versus $34.896 a week ago (-1.26%) and $36.918 a month ago (-6.66%), though essentially flat versus the $34.627 ninety-day level (-0.49%). The next-quarter estimate of $10.169 is the offset, up 0.73% week over week, 1.21% over thirty days and 2.38% over ninety days, but it now implies an implausible 53.9% sequential step-up from the $6.606 current-quarter number, a jump the bundle does not explain. Gross margin of 83.4% and operating margin of 54.22% are elite, but no margin time series is supplied, so expansion versus compression cannot be confirmed.
生意质量
Gross margin of 83.40%, operating margin of 54.22%, margin of 52.35% and net margin of 33.53% are top-decile pharmaceutical economics, and of 20.36% confirms the earnings base is asset-efficient rather than purely financially engineered. The current ratio of 1.36 is adequate and the 0.68 quick ratio is the one soft liquidity spot. Institutional ownership of 85.36% signals a well-sponsored mega-cap, while insider ownership of just 0.16%, short interest of 0.79% of float (short ratio 3.01) and a 0.453 beta mean there is little contrarian fuel in either direction. The concentration caveat - an estimated roughly 65% of revenue from Mounjaro and Zepbound per the earlier company profile, not restated in this bundle - ties durability to efficacy leadership, payer access, supply execution and realized net pricing rather than to the breadth of the pipeline. Business quality easily supports a premium multiple; it does not support an unlimited one, and at 28.32x the market is paying for the full franchise, not just the current two products.
资本配置
Lilly generated $28.08 billion of operating cash flow and $11.07 billion of free cash flow, a roughly $17.02 billion gap that reflects heavy investment spending without the bundle separating capital expenditure from other uses. The dividend consumes only about 21.69% of earnings at a 0.54% yield, leaving the large majority of profit available for manufacturing build-out, pipeline development and capacity expansion. Shares outstanding of 891.74 million (float 888.95 million) are essentially unchanged from the prior analysis, so there is no evidence of dilution and no evidence of a meaningful buyback program; no historical share-count or repurchase series is supplied. Cash generation funds the dividend and the investment program without new equity, which is the key capital-allocation positive; the return on incremental manufacturing and pipeline investment cannot be quantified from the available data.
预期修正
The revision picture remains negative on the near term and is now turning constructive on the out year. Current-quarter consensus sits at $6.606 versus $7.108 seven days ago, $9.948 thirty days ago and $9.468 ninety days ago, with zero upward and seven downward revisions in the last seven days for the current quarter and the same split for the current year. FY26 consensus is $34.458, down 1.26% over seven days and 6.66% over 30 days but roughly flat versus $34.627 ninety days ago, with five upward and eight downward revisions over thirty days. The forward-looking quarters are the positive tell: next quarter is $10.169 with two upward and four downward revisions in seven days and six upward versus four downward over thirty days, and FY27 is $47.388 with three upward and four downward revisions in seven days but seven upward versus five downward over thirty days, up 5.06% over ninety days from $45.106. Sell-side ratings remain constructive: 26 of 31 recommendations are Buy or Strong Buy (six Strong Buy, 20 Buy, three Hold, one Sell, one Strong Sell), improved from 25 of 30 a month ago and 22 of 28 three months ago, with zero upgrades or downgrades in the last 90 days. Price-target activity through October was uniformly positive - Leerink Partners raised to $1,316 from $1,309 on October 21, RBC reiterated Outperform at $1,500 on October 12, Cantor Fitzgerald raised to $1,440 from $1,410 on October 8, Morgan Stanley raised to $1,430 from $1,419 on October 7 and JPMorgan raised to $1,500 from $1,400 on September 28 - so the sell side remains directionally positive at the ratings and target level even as near-term numbers come down hard.