Amgen Inc.
Decision brief
Amgen closed at $393.10 on July 28, 2026, up sharply from $376.26 on July 27, after touching its 52-week high of $398 earlier in the day. The at 18.21 (neutral) and 10Y yield at 4.60% (moderating) create a cautiously supportive macro environment for defensive stocks. Fundamentals remain solid: forward 16.77, FCF yield 3.51%, and 2.68% dividend yield are well-supported by cash flows. The company has a 100% beat rate over the last 5 quarters, with management consistently under-promising and over-delivering. Technicals are strongly bullish: price well above ($357) and ($334), histogram expanding, and surging. However, is overbought at 73.4, and the stock trades above the mean analyst target of $357, suggesting limited near-term upside from consensus. Recent news includes UBS raising its target to $420 and a federal judge blocking Colorado's Enbrel price cap, removing a key regulatory overhang. The upcoming Q2 earnings report on August 4 (6 days away) introduces event risk; a beat could extend the rally, while a miss could trigger a sharp pullback. The overall recommendation is BUY, with HOLD for 1-month given event risk and overbought conditions, HOLD for 6-months reflecting fair valuation, and BUY for 1-year based on durable cash flows, dividend growth, and MariTide pipeline optionality.
Decision
$393.10
Recommendation score
65%Confidence
70%Outlook by horizon
1M
Near
6M
Mid
1Y
Long
Primary catalyst
The Q2 2026 earnings report on August 4 (6 days away) is the single most market-moving event; a beat could propel the stock above the 52-week high, while a miss could reverse recent gains significantly.
Price rail
$340.00
$360.00 - $370.00
$398.00 - $420.00
Risk / reward
1.8x
Downside to stop
-13.5%
Upside to exit
+6.8%
Position sizing
Core holders may maintain full positions given the defensive income profile. Traders should consider reducing exposure near $390-400 ahead of earnings to manage event risk. A move below $357 () would signal a loss of short-term momentum and may warrant further reduction.
Why It Works
What Breaks It
The stock is above the mean analyst target ($357), suggesting limited near-term upside. High debt ($57.3B) increases vulnerability to higher interest rates. MariTide lags competitors, and pipeline setbacks could disappoint. is overbought, and Q2 earnings are expected to decline, which could trigger a pullback. Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) based on estimate revision trends is a caution.
A daily close below ($334) on above-average volume would break the long-term uptrend and require exiting long positions. A significant miss in Q2 earnings or negative MariTide data would also invalidate the bull case.
Watch Next
Decision inputs
6 signalsFundamental
-9.2%
Upside to analyst mean target
of 16.77x is below the biotech sector average (~20x), but the ratio of 2.06x suggests fair valuation given single-digit earnings growth (~5%). The stock trades 10% above the mean analyst target of $357, implying limited near-term upside from consensus. UBS's $420 target provides potential upside, but Morgan Stanley's $333 target highlights divergence. FCF yield of 3.51% and dividend yield of 2.68% add to the value proposition.
Technical
Bullish
Trend quality
Price ($393.10) is well above ($357.47) and ($334.16), with > confirming a strong uptrend. The stock touched its 52-week high of $398 on July 28 before closing at $393.10. Overall trend structure is bullish with price well above all major moving averages.
Earnings
6d
Steady
Q1 2026 of $5.15 beat the $4.77 consensus by 8.0%, driven by strong rare disease sales and cost controls.
News
Mixed-Bullish
Headline tone
The Q2 2026 earnings report on August 4 (6 days away) is the single most market-moving event; a beat could propel the stock above the 52-week high, while a miss could reverse recent gains significantly.
Macro
Neutral
4.60% 10Y / 18.2 VIX
Neutral macro with a at 18.21 and moderating 10Y yield (4.60%) supports defensive stocks like Amgen, but elevated rates limit multiple expansion and increase debt service costs. The regime favors income-oriented positions but requires cautious position sizing given event risk.
Stability
Defensive Compounder
Core Anchor
Amgen's low beta (0.40), 2.68% dividend yield, strong operating cash flow ($10.8B), and consistent earnings beat rate (100% last 5 quarters) support a defensive profile. High debt-to-equity (624%) is manageable given cash flow coverage. Long-term thesis depends on pipeline optionality from MariTide and continued execution on legacy drugs. The stock is suitable as a core anchor in a conservative to moderate portfolio, providing reliable income with moderate capital appreciation potential.
Mean Target
$0.00
High / Low
$0 / $0
Median Target
$0.00
Consensus range
$215 - $427
Consensus
Consensus is mixed-bullish with a hold tilt. The mean target of $357 is 9.2% below the current price, indicating limited near-term upside from the average view. The wide range ($215-$427) reflects significant uncertainty about pipeline outcomes and drug pricing. Recent actions show divergence, with UBS ($420) and Morgan Stanley ($333) representing the extremes.
Insider Signal
Neutral
Net Bias
Balanced
Insider Own.
0.0%
Institutional Own.
0.0%
Interpretation
Insider activity shows no strong conviction; transactions are consistent with normal portfolio management and do not signal concern or exceptional confidence.
Notable activity
General Counsel Jonathan Graham acquired 6,430 shares (likely option exercise, no value provided). Officer Nancy A. Grygiel sold 1,589 shares for $483,808. No open-market purchases. Transactions are routine and immaterial.
Industry
Sentiment
23
Tracked names
5
Grouping
industry
Drug Manufacturers - General industry is currently Mixed-Bullish with an average recommendation score near 64. positioning is broadly steady, and leadership is concentrated in LLY, JNJ, ABBV.
Rotation Drivers
Themes
Score: 60
The obesity drug market is projected to grow rapidly, and Amgen's MariTide (monthly dosing) offers a differentiated profile. While Amgen lags leaders Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly in clinical data, the Phase 3 program initiation keeps it in the race. The theme remains strong, but near-term catalysts for Amgen are limited until Phase 3 readouts in 12-18 months.
Ongoing Phase 3 program and market expansion keep obesity as a key long-term driver, but no immediate data catalysts.
Market Cap
$212.16B
P/E (TTM)
0.0
Forward P/E
0.0
Revenue Growth
0.0%
ROE
0.0%
Beta
0.00
Full Metric Set
17 additional stats
Valuation Stack
Multiples and cash-flow framing.
Price / Sales
0.0
Price / Book
0.0
EV / EBITDA
0.0
Quality & Balance Sheet
Margins, leverage, and liquidity.
Gross Margin
0.0%
Operating Margin
0.0%
Debt / Equity
0.0
Current Ratio
0.00x
Quick Ratio
0.00x
Positioning & Range
Short interest and 52-week location.
Short % Float
0.0%
Short Ratio
0.00x
52W High
$0.00
52W Low
$0.00
From 52W High
-1.2%
From 52W Low
45.7%
Company Classification
Sector and industry context.
Sector
Healthcare
Industry
Drug Manufacturers - General
Additional Signals
Free Cash Flow
$0.00
Business Quality
Capital Allocation
Estimate Revisions
Revenue Growth
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